Rustavi vs Dila: match statistics

Rustavi scores on average 1.75 goals per home match (11 goals this season, 8 in the last 5) and in their last 5 games they have a record of 3 wins and 2 draws, equating to about 2.2 points per match in that period. Dila on the road generates slightly higher xG (1.52 vs 1.47), registers more total shots (13.5 vs 12.25) and has greater possession (50% vs 42%), indicating good control and chance creation. Rustavi’s key advantage is finishing efficiency — on average 4.5 shots on target and a conversion rate of about 14% compared to 3.75 shots on target and ~7% for Dila — additionally the hosts have not had a match without scoring (0% vs 25% of away matches without a goal for Dila). Defensively both teams are similar: Rustavi concedes 0.75 goals at home, Dila 0.5 away, both have around 50% clean sheets, so the defensive edge is marginal. Considering higher finishing efficiency and the hosts’ lack of matches without a goal, I predict a Rustavi win.

I back No BTTS because both teams have low seasonal indicators: Rustavi BTTS 40% and Dila 25% versus league average 49%. The main argument for “No” is Dila’s defense — 50% clean sheets and only 0.5 goals conceded this season, while the league records 67% matches with a clean sheet. Rustavi has shown BTTS 60% in the last 5 matches and scores 1.6 goals on average, with recent xG 1.59 (Rustavi) vs 1.56 (Dila), indicating some offensive chances. Still, seasonal goals averages 0.8 (Rustavi) and 1.0 (Dila) and a low league average 2.18 favor a match with at least one clean sheet. I estimate 65% probability for “No” and 35% for “Yes”, mainly due to Dila’s 50% CS, the high league clean sheet rate 67% and the low seasonal BTTS 40%/25%.

A model incorporating xG (1.39 for Rustavi and 1.52 for Dila) and opponents’ conceded xG (Dila 1.20, Rustavi 1.01) yields expected goals of 1.30 for Rustavi and 1.27 for Dila, totaling 2.57 goals. With λ=2.57 the Poisson distribution implies ~73% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~47% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~26% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Although season averages for goals scored are low (0.8 Rustavi, 1.0 Dila) and season Over 1.5 rates are 40% and 25%, the last 5 matches show higher attacking potential: Rustavi averaged 1.6 goals in their last 5 fixtures, with recent xG 1.59 versus opponents’ conceded xG 1.21. Additionally, Rustavi had 60% of matches Over 2.5 in their last 5 games, and the league average is 2.18 goals per match, so the projected 2.57 is clearly above average and favors the Over 1.5 market.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an away win at full-time (X/2): Dila wins 75% of their matches this season and has not been leading at the break in any game, with a half-time draw occurring in 100% of their matches. The visitors dominate after the break — they average 2.25 points in second halves and "win the second half" in 75% of cases, with most of their goals coming in minutes 46–60 (1 goal) and 76–90 (2 goals). Rustavi lead at the break in 40% of matches and have higher first-half goal averages (0.6 goals versus Dila’s 0.25), so a scenario in which the home side leads at the break and then concedes the win (1/2) is also realistic. A comparison of xG and shots favors Dila: xG 1.52 versus 1.39 and 13.5 shots per match versus 10.6 for the hosts, which increases the visitors’ chances of creating decisive situations after the break. Therefore I assign the highest probability to X/2 (36%), followed by 1/2 (22%) and 1/1 (15%); the combined chance that the visitors will be leading at the break remains low (~4%) consistent with their 0% lead-at-the-break record.