Rustavi vs Dinamo Tbilisi: match statistics

Rustavi at home are a strong side: they sit 2nd and have an 80% home win rate (4/5), scoring on average 1.6 goals and conceding 0.6 per match, with 60% clean sheets and 0% matches without scoring. Dinamo Tbilisi create more shots on the road (13.2 vs 11.6) and have a higher xG (1.54 vs 1.38 for Rustavi), but convert less efficiently – 9% shot conversion versus 14% for the hosts and fail to score in 40% of away games. Defensively the hosts look more stable: Rustavi have average xG against of 1.2, while Dinamo have xG against of 1.49 and concede on average 0.8 goals away. Form reinforces the home advantage – in their last five home matches Rustavi have 4 wins and 1 loss, and over the last 5 matches they average 1.8 points versus 1.6 for Dinamo. Based on this I forecast a Rustavi win; suggested probabilities are approximately 55% for the home win, 30% for a draw and 15% for the away win, with a key advantage in conversion and defensive stability for the hosts.

Seasonal data point to a high probability of BTTS: Rustavi has a season BTTS rate of 67% and Dinamo 60%, averaging ~63% which exceeds the league level of 53%. In the last 5 matches the signal is even stronger — Rustavi has 60% BTTS in five games and Dinamo 80%, with average goals in those matches 1.0 (Rustavi) and 1.4 (Dinamo) scored and 0.6 and 1.2 conceded, meaning both teams have recently both scored and conceded. xG confirms the attacking potential: Rustavi has xG_for 1.92 versus opponents’ xG_against 1.49, and Dinamo xG_for 1.54 versus xG_against 1.37, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Shot stats show Rustavi’s pressure (avg 5.83 shots on target and 15.67 shots per game) versus Dinamo (4.0 on target and 13.2), and Rustavi’s low clean sheet rate 17% vs 40% for Dinamo, plus seasonal goal tallies 13-8 and 12-11 suggest both teams’ matches often end with traded goals. Based on this I recommend a BTTS - Yes bet with an estimated probability 72% vs 28% as the strongest signal from the provided data.

xG-based model: combining the home xG 1.92 with Dinamo’s defense (xG against Dinamo 1.49) implies roughly 1.71 goals for Rustavi, while combining the away xG 1.54 with the home defense 1.37 gives about 1.45 goals for Dinamo — totaling around 3.16 goals. Season metrics confirm a scoring tendency: Over 1.5 occurred for Rustavi in 67% of matches and for Dinamo in 60%, and both teams have BTTS rates of 67% and 60% respectively, which increases the likelihood of at least two goals. Over 2.5 looks moderately likely — season Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 60% (avg ~55%) and with expected xG ~3.16 I assess Over 2.5 at approximately 62%, although the home side’s season goals per game is 1.0 despite xG 1.92, which slightly tempers this. Over 3.5 is unlikely: season Over 3.5 rates are only 17% and 20%, so I assign about a 20% probability. Consequently the strongest signal is backing Over 1.5 (over side, line 1.5).

Dinamo Tbilisi has the HT advantage: they led at the break in 40% of their matches versus 17% for Rustavi, and in the last five meetings the visitors scored 8 goals before half-time compared with just 3 for the hosts. The average points gained by half-time are 1.6 for Dinamo versus 1.17 for Rustavi, and the average first-half goals in the last five matches are 1.6 for Dinamo versus 0.6 for Rustavi, which confirms Dinamo more frequently holds the lead at the break. Although Rustavi generate higher xG (1.92 vs 1.54 for Dinamo), Dinamo are more efficient in converting chances (average goals 1.2 vs 1.0 and a conversion rate of 9% vs 6%) and have a higher clean sheet percentage this season (40% vs 17%). After the break Dinamo score on average 0.4 goals versus 0.17 for the hosts and record a higher average points tally in second halves (1.2 vs 0.83), therefore the most likely scenario is Dinamo leading at half-time and winning at full-time, hence the selection 2/2 with approximately a 30% probability.