SønderjyskE vs Viborg: match statistics

SønderjyskE has a clear home advantage: they win 58% of home matches, concede on average 1.00 goal per game and score 1.67 goals at home, with a home goal difference of +8. Viborg on the road posts higher xG (1.58 vs 1.45), more shots on target (4.67 vs 4.17) and greater possession (49% vs 44%), indicating the visitors create slightly better chances but convert them less efficiently (shot conversion 9% vs 13% for the hosts). In the last 5 matches SønderjyskE have scored 4 goals and average 1.2 points per game (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss), while Viborg have 6 goals and 1.4 points per game (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), giving a slight form edge to the visitors. The key difference is the hosts’ home stability: clean-sheet rate just 8% vs 25% for Viborg and a lower loss rate at home (17% vs Viborg’s 42% away defeats), which favors SønderjyskE. Considering the higher conversion efficiency (13% vs 9%), low FTS and a strong home record, I favor the home win.

I back BTTS - Yes at 72% probability because SønderjyskE averages 1.92 goals per match this season and has a seasonal BTTS rate of 85%, while Viborg concedes 1.33 goals per match and has an 80% BTTS rate in the last 5 matches. Viborg scores 1.25 goals on the season and SønderjyskE concedes 1.69, so statistically both teams are positioned to score. xG comparison confirms both sides create chances (home xG 1.32 vs xG against Viborg 1.56, and Viborg xG 1.58 vs xG against SønderjyskE 1.52). However, the hosts’ BTTS drop to 40% in the last 5 matches and their goals average of 0.8 versus Viborg’s 1.2 in that period reduce confidence, so I assign a moderately high confidence level of 72% rather than a higher one.

Combining xG and shot conversion yields an expected 1.69 goals for SønderjyskE (xG 1.32; conversion 11.38×17% = 1.93; average 1.69) and 1.40 for Viborg (xG 1.58; conversion 13.92×9% = 1.25; average 1.40), totaling 3.09. Seasonal metrics confirm an offensive profile: SønderjyskE scores 1.92 goals on average and has 77% of matches Over 2.5, Viborg scores 1.25 with 50% of matches Over 2.5, and the league average is 3.06 goals per game. SønderjyskE records BTTS in 85% of fixtures while Viborg keeps a clean sheet in 42% of matches, suggesting the hosts frequently concede to opponents. A Poisson model for a total of 3.09 gives probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈ 81%, Over 2.5 ≈ 60% and Over 3.5 ≈ 37%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

SønderjyskE led at the break in 46% of their matches and average 1.38 goals by half-time, while Viborg manage only 0.25 first-half goals, giving the home side a clear advantage in the first half. The hosts also show higher finishing efficiency (conversion rate 17% versus Viborg’s 9%) and in 92% of their home games at least one goal is scored before the break, so a lead at the break is realistic. Viborg, however, are stronger after the break: they average 1.00 goal in the second half and win the second half in 50% of matches, with their goals often coming in the 46–60' (7 goals) and 76–90' (5 goals) windows, increasing the risk of a turnaround. Overall SønderjyskE have a half-time goal difference of +0.53 (1.38 scored minus 0.85 conceded), while the second half yields a negative balance of about -0.31 (0.54 scored minus 0.85 conceded), giving an expected home advantage of roughly +0.22 goals at full-time; therefore the most likely scenario is 1/1 (24%), with meaningful alternatives X/2 (19%) and 1/X (17%).