Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights: match statistics
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Sacramento Republic played against Las Vegas Lights in USL Championship (United States). The game was played on October 1, 2026. Venue: Papa Murphy’s Park. Final score: 3:2.
Recent form
Sacramento Republic has 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.80 points per game. Las Vegas Lights has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 0.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Sacramento Republic scores 1.32 goals per game and allows 0.88. Las Vegas Lights scores 1.28 and allows 1.40. Games in this league average 2.73 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 52% of Sacramento Republic's games and 64% of Las Vegas Lights's. The Over 2.5 rates are 32% and 48%, compared with league averages of 54% for BTTS and 50% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Sacramento Republic has the higher season xG average, 1.50 to 1.42 per game. Sacramento Republic takes 12.4 shots per game, while Las Vegas Lights takes 12.3.
First-half and second-half trends
Sacramento Republic leads at halftime in 24% of its games and scores 0.76 goals per game after halftime. Las Vegas Lights leads at halftime in 24% and scores 0.68 after halftime.
When the teams score
Sacramento Republic's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (10 goals). For Las Vegas Lights, it is minutes 31-45+ (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
USL Championship games average 2.73 goals. Both teams score in 54% of games, and 50% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 6 previous meetings were available. The record was 2 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Sacramento Republic have a clear home advantage: they have won 58% of their home matches and concede an average of just 0.75 goals, while Las Vegas Lights have lost 50% of their away matches and concede an average of 1.75 goals. The hosts also create better chances, averaging 1.62 xG at home compared with the visitors’ 1.25 away, and their 4.67 shots on target per match outstrip their opponents’ 3.25. Sacramento are unbeaten in their last five matches, although they have recorded as many as four draws; Las Vegas have lost three times over that span and conceded 7 goals. The visitors still have a realistic chance of scoring, averaging 1.5 goals on the road, but the hosts’ more solid defense and superior chance quality point towards a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
This season, both teams scored in 62% and 67% of their matches, respectively, above the league average of 54%. Las Vegas average 1.50 goals per match and have failed to score in only 8% of games, which supports backing them to find the net, despite Sacramento conceding an average of 1.08 goals. The hosts average 1.08 goals, but their xG stands at 1.57, while Las Vegas concede 1.75 goals despite opponents recording an xG of 1.53—so Sacramento also have good reason to score. Caution is warranted given the last 5 matches: Las Vegas scored an average of just 0.8 goals in that run, and both teams scored in 40% of those games. However, the stronger season-long indicators point to BTTS - Yes, with both teams expected to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
At least two goals were scored in 77% of Sacramento’s matches and 83% of Las Vegas’s fixtures, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest signal. The home side averages 1.57 xG, while the visitors allow opponents 1.53 xG, giving Sacramento a solid basis to score one or two goals. Las Vegas averages 1.50 goals per season, although that figure has fallen to 0.80 over its last five matches, reducing confidence in picks on higher goal lines. Across those same five matches, both teams went Over 2.5 goals in only 20% of cases, so Over 1.5 goals is a more cautious choice than backing three or more goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: Sacramento went into the break level in 62% of its matches, compared with 33% for Las Vegas, while the teams' average first-half goals scored were almost identical—0.62 and 0.58, respectively. The hosts could gain the upper hand after the break, as Las Vegas concedes an average of 1.08 goals in that period, compared with just 0.38 for Sacramento. Sacramento's higher xG, indicating the quality of the chances created, also supports a home win: 1.57 versus 1.25 for the visitors. The hosts have not lost any of their last five matches, while the visitors have suffered three defeats and conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game. Sacramento's four draws over this spell keep the X/X outcome in contention, but Las Vegas's recent defensive struggles make X/1 a slightly stronger pick.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Sacramento Republic | Las Vegas Lights | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Sacramento Republic is 125% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / game - Sacramento Republic · 0.8 pts / game - Las Vegas Lights
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Sacramento Republic is 59% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.88 goals / game - Sacramento Republic · 1.4 goals / game - Las Vegas Lights
Sacramento Republic scores in 76% of games (19 of 25 games), while Las Vegas Lights keeps a clean sheet in 28% (7 of 25 games).
Las Vegas Lights scores in 84% of games (21 of 25 games), while Sacramento Republic keeps a clean sheet in 36% (9 of 25 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Sacramento Republic
Over / Under - Las Vegas Lights
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sacramento Republic - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 24% of games and wins 40%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Las Vegas Lights - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 24% of games and wins 36%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Sacramento Republic
Las Vegas Lights
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| Sacramento Republic | Liga | Las Vegas Lights | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.20 | 2.73 | • 2.68 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 52% | 54% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 32% | 50% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 28% | • 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 65% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 68% | 78% | ▼ 72% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Sacramento RepublicSubstitutionOn: Michelle Jonathan Benítez ValenzuelaOff: Alfredo Midence Alvarado
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Sacramento Republic's perspective: 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses against Las Vegas Lights. Games average 2.17 goals, and both teams scored in 33% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?
The USL Championship match finished Sacramento Republic 3:2 Las Vegas Lights. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Sacramento Republic and Las Vegas Lights?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches Sacramento Republic won 2, Las Vegas Lights won 2 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.17 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?
Sacramento Republic score 1.32 goals per game on average and Las Vegas Lights 1.28. The USL Championship average is 2.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Sacramento Republic's matches and 64% of Las Vegas Lights's.
What form are Sacramento Republic and Las Vegas Lights in?
Over the last 5 games Sacramento Republic have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Las Vegas Lights 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.