Saint-Étienne vs Amiens SC: match statistics

Saint-Étienne holds a clear home advantage in key metrics: they average 2.13 goals per home match with an xG of 1.59 and 62% possession, producing 14.44 shots per game (5 on target), whereas Amiens on the road average 1.25 goals with xG 1.04 and 9.13 shots (3.5 on target). Defensively the hosts concede 1.13 goals at home with xG against 1.1, while visitors concede 1.75 goals away with xG against 1.85, indicating Amiens is more frequently exposed to high-quality chances. In the last 5 matches both sides have scored 4 goals, but Saint-Étienne’s form reads 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (0.8 points per game) versus Amiens’ 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses (0.2 points per game). Season-long stats further favor the hosts: 63% home win rate, +16 goal difference and only 13% of matches without scoring, versus Amiens’ 25% away win rate, -8 goal difference and 25% of matches without a goal. Considering the superiority in chance creation (14.44 vs 9.13 shots), better efficiency and more stable defense from the hosts, and the visitors’ poor form, I tip Saint-Étienne to win.

Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 53% (Saint-Étienne) and 63% (Amiens), and in the last 5 matches both teams show BTTS at 60%. Saint-Étienne concedes on average 1.88 goals per match this season and 1.8 in the last 5, while Amiens concedes 1.75 this season and 2.0 in the last 5; low clean sheet percentages (12% and 19%) confirm they struggle to keep a clean sheet. Amiens has conceded as many as 60 goals this season versus 38 for Saint-Étienne, and Amiens’ shot conversion rate is 14% versus 9% for the hosts, increasing the risk of goals from both sides. In the last 5 matches Saint-Étienne has average xG 1.7 with xG against 1.16, and Amiens has xG 1.26 with xG against 1.71, so both teams create and concede scoring opportunities. Additionally, shots on target (3.71 vs 3.50) and seasonal over2.5 around 53–56% suggest matches between these sides frequently feature goals. Considering seasonal BTTS 53%/63%, last 5 matches 60%/60%, high goals conceded (avg ~1.8–2.0) and low clean sheets, I assess BTTS probability at 72% versus 28% for No Goal.

Based on xG I expect 1.53 goals for Saint-Étienne (attacking xG 1.21 vs xG conceded to Amiens 1.85 → (1.21+1.85)/2) and 1.32 for Amiens (attacking xG 1.04 vs xG conceded to Saint-Étienne 1.59 → (1.04+1.59)/2), totaling ~2.85 expected goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.85 yields about a 78% chance of Over 1.5 goals (probability of 0–1 goals ≈22%), around 54% for Over 2.5 and about 32% for Over 3.5. Seasonal data supports this bias: home side has 65% of matches Over 1.5, away side 75%, both teams have high Over 0.5 rates at 88% and 94% and BTTS at 53% and 63% respectively. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 — the high expected total of 2.85 and 78% probability provide a clear edge versus Under 1.5, while the 2.5 line only slightly favors Over (54% vs 46%).

In my assessment the most reliable HT/FT outcome is 2/2 (Amiens leading at half-time and winning), because Amiens led at the break in 44% of their away matches, whereas Saint-Étienne led at home in only 6% of fixtures. Saint-Étienne were trailing at half-time in 59% of home games, and the visitors have a clear advantage in half-time performance — averaging 1.63 points at the break versus 0.53 for the hosts — which suggests Amiens more frequently dominate the first 45 minutes. Additionally, Amiens score an average of 1.25 goals per match compared to 1.00 for Saint-Étienne and have better shot conversion (14% vs 9%), so even with a lower xG (1.04 vs 1.21) the visitors convert chances more efficiently. The hosts concede on average 1.06 goals by half-time and 1.88 per match, and Amiens’ games feature both teams scoring in 63% of matches, making it realistic that the visitors will take the lead at the break and maintain it until the end (2/2).