Samgurali vs Gagra: match statistics
Samgurali vs Gagra: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Samgurali played against Gagra in Erovnuli Liga (Georgia). The game was played on May 2, 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Recent form
Samgurali has 1 win, 0 draws and 4 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.60 points per game. Gagra has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, with 1.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Samgurali scores 0.89 goals per game and allows 1.89. Gagra scores 1.00 and allows 1.33. Games in this league average 2.24 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 67% of Samgurali's games and 67% of Gagra's. The Over 2.5 rates are 56% and 44%, compared with league averages of 51% for BTTS and 47% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Gagra has the higher season xG average, 1.39 to 1.30 per game. Samgurali takes 10.1 shots per game, while Gagra takes 11.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Samgurali leads at halftime in 11% of its games and scores 0.78 goals per game after halftime. Gagra leads at halftime in 0% and scores 0.56 after halftime.
When the teams score
Samgurali's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (5 goals). For Gagra, it is minutes 31-45+ (3 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Erovnuli Liga games average 2.24 goals. Both teams score in 51% of games, and 47% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 5 previous meetings were available. The record was 2 home wins, 1 draw and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 1.80 goals, with both teams scoring in 20% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis favors an away win for Gagra. Samgurali have 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 12; at home they concede on average 1.25 goals per match and have no clean sheets (0%). Gagra average 1.2 points per match over their last 5, have not recorded an away loss (0% defeats), score 1.25 goals away and concede only 0.75 per match. Samgurali post higher average xG at home (1.36 vs 1.19 xG for Gagra away) and register slightly more shots on target (4.0 vs 3.25), but the visitors convert chances better (13% conversion vs 10%) and have no issue scoring away (0% matches without a goal). Given the visitors’ superior defense (0.75 goals conceded away vs 1.25 at home), higher finishing efficiency and better recent points average (1.2 vs 0.6 over the last 5), I rate Gagra as more likely to win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I recommend BTTS - Yes because both teams show clearly high BTTS rates: Samgurali 60% for the season and 80% in the last 5 matches, and Gagra 75% for the season and also 80% in the last 5. Samgurali concedes on average 1.8 goals this season (17 conceded) and as much as 2.4 in the last 5 matches, while Gagra scores on average 1.25 goals this season (9 scored) and 1.2 in the last 5 — meaning the home side regularly allows opponents to find the net. In terms of scoring opportunities Samgurali has xG_for 1.55 and xG_against 1.4, and Gagra has xG_for 1.19 and xG_against 1.74; both teams therefore create chances (1.55 and 1.19 xG) and are exposed to conceding (xG_against 1.4 and 1.74). Additionally Samgurali records 0% clean sheets this season, Gagra 25%, and average shots on target are 4.6 for Samgurali and 3.25 for Gagra, which supports the case for goals from both sides. Considering the seasonal 60%/75% BTTS, 80% in the last 5 for both teams, the high number of goals conceded by Samgurali (17) and the favorable xG, I assess BTTS probability at 78% vs 22% and pick 'yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I calculated expected goals as the average of the home attack xG and the away defense xG: home (xG_for 1.55 vs xG_against_away 1.74) ≈ 1.65, away (xG_for 1.19 vs xG_against_home 1.40) ≈ 1.30, total ≈ 2.95. A Poisson model with λ=2.95 yields roughly a 79% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 56% for Over 2.5 and about 34% for Over 3.5, which I round to 80%, 56% and 34%. Seasonal indicators confirm a strong signal for Over 1.5: home team has 80% of matches >1.5, away 75%, and both teams have 100% of matches with at least one goal (>0.5). Over 2.5 is less clear — home 60% seasonally and 80% in last 5 matches, away 25% seasonally and 40% in last 5, hence a moderate 56% for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is unlikely (seasonal Over 3.5: home 20%, away 0%), therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the best value.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Gagra is a clear favorite: they average 2.0 points per match versus 0.4 for Samgurali, win 50% of their games compared to 0% for the hosts, and concede only 0.75 goals per match versus 1.8 conceded by Samgurali. At half-time I expect a draw, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of this season’s matches and the visitors in 75%. Samgurali has the higher xG (1.55 vs 1.19) but a significantly lower shot conversion rate — 6% versus Gagra’s 13% — which translates into an average of 0.8 home goals per match versus 1.25 away goals and indicates Gagra’s advantage in finishing. Minute-by-minute stats show Gagra scores after the break (2 goals in 46–60 and 2 goals in 76–90), so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Gagra turnaround to win the match (X/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Samgurali | Gagra | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Gagra is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / game - Samgurali · 1.2 pts / game - Gagra
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Gagra is 12% better for: goals scored per game.
0.89 goals / game - Samgurali · 1 goals / game - Gagra
Gagra is 42% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.89 goals / game - Samgurali · 1.33 goals / game - Gagra
Samgurali scores in 78% of games (7 of 9 meczów), while Gagra keeps a clean sheet in 11% (1 of 9 meczów).
Gagra scores in 78% of games (7 of 9 meczów), while Samgurali keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Samgurali
Over / Under - Gagra
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Gagra is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.56 pts / game - Samgurali · 0.67 pts / game - Gagra
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Samgurali - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 11% of games and wins 22%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Gagra - second-half results
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -6 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Samgurali
Gagra
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Erovnuli Liga).
Teams vs league
| Samgurali | Liga | Gagra | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.78 | 2.24 | • 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 51% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 47% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 32% | ▼ 11% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 67% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 78% | 69% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Samgurali's perspective: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses against Gagra. Games average 1.80 goals, and both teams scored in 20% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Samgurali vs Gagra?
The Erovnuli Liga match finished Samgurali 2:0 Gagra. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Samgurali and Gagra?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Samgurali won 2, Gagra won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.80 goals, with both teams scoring in 20% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Samgurali vs Gagra?
Samgurali score 0.89 goals per game on average and Gagra 1.00. The Erovnuli Liga average is 2.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Samgurali's matches and 67% of Gagra's.
What form are Samgurali and Gagra in?
Over the last 5 games Samgurali have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Gagra 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Samgurali vs Gagra?
The statistical background for Samgurali vs Gagra — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.