San Antonio vs Tulsa Roughnecks: match statistics

Tulsa Roughnecks are slight favorites, as they sit 6th, have 10 wins this season, and have collected 9 points from their last five matches, compared with San Antonio’s 7 points over the same period. The key factor is the visitors’ current defensive form: they have conceded just 3 goals in their last five games, compared with 7 for the hosts, and have allowed 19 goals across the campaign, versus 26 conceded by San Antonio. Away from home, Tulsa average 1.56 goals per match and convert 13% of their shots, outperforming San Antonio’s 1.27 goals and 9% conversion rate at home. However, the hosts can rely on greater possession, averaging 54% compared with their opponents’ 42%, as well as a higher home xG of 1.57 versus the visitors’ 1.43. Home advantage limits the size of Tulsa’s edge, but their stronger recent form and significantly more reliable defense point to a Tulsa victory.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, primarily due to San Antonio’s highly solid defense, which keeps a clean sheet in 58% of matches and concedes just 0.58 goals per game on average. The hosts also have a low season rate of matches with both teams scoring, at 25%, well below the 53% league-wide figure. Tulsa averages 1.56 goals and 4.67 shots on target per match, but BTTS has landed in only 20% of their last five fixtures, with the team conceding just 3 goals in total. San Antonio averages only 1.00 goal, fails to score in 33% of matches, and its xG of 1.23 does not provide a clear advantage over the opponent’s xG against a 1.37 goal-concession rate. The most likely scenario is therefore that at least one team will fail to score, especially with another home clean sheet or limited San Antonio attacking efficiency both possible.

The match profile points to approximately 2.41 goals: the hosts average 1.23 xG, while the visitors average 1.43 xG, with San Antonio conceding just 0.58 goals per game at home. The hosts’ defense has kept a clean sheet in 58% of matches, limiting Tulsa’s attacking potential despite their average of 1.56 goals scored. San Antonio have recorded Under 3.5 goals in 92% of their matches this season, compared with 67% for Tulsa, while Over 3.5 goals has occurred in only 8% and 33% of matches, respectively. San Antonio’s last five outings have been slightly more open, with 60% of matches finishing Over 2.5 goals; however, Tulsa conceded just 0.6 goals per game during this period, and only 20% of their matches went Over 2.5 goals. Therefore, the strongest option remains Under 3.5 goals, as the data for both teams clearly points more often to a match ending with a maximum of three goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as San Antonio were level at the break in 58% of their matches, compared with 33% for Tulsa. The hosts concede just 0.08 goals per match before half-time and kept a clean sheet in the first half in 92% of their appearances, which significantly limits the visitors’ chances of taking an early lead. San Antonio score only 0.50 goals per match before the break, while Tulsa concede 0.56 during this period, so an early lead for the hosts is also not the most likely outcome. After half-time, Tulsa show greater attacking potential, scoring an average of 1.00 goals compared with San Antonio’s 0.50, but the hosts concede just 0.58 goals per match over the course of the season and have kept clean sheets in 58% of their games. The balance at full-time is also supported by similar xG figures: 1.23 for San Antonio and 1.43 for Tulsa, with both teams recording a drawn full-time result in approximately one quarter of their matches.