San Carlos vs Pérez Zeledón: match statistics

San Carlos appears to have a defensive edge at home — hosts concede on average 1.35 goals per match versus Pérez Zeledón’s 1.82 away, and average xG against is 1.24 vs 1.97, indicating greater goal risk for the visitors. Pérez Zeledón, however, creates more chances: on average 12.24 shots per match and 3.94 shots on target versus 8.59 and 2.35 for San Carlos, and higher xG per match 1.41 vs 1.10, so the visitors generate more high-quality opportunities. Both teams are poor in finishing actions — averaging 0.88 goals per match and 47% of matches without scoring, with San Carlos showing better shot conversion 10% versus 7% for the visitors. Last-5 form does not clearly favor either side: hosts average 0.6 points over the last five, visitors 0.8 points, and each team has recorded only one win in that period. Given the hosts’ safer defense and higher clean sheet rate (29% vs 12%), combined with the visitors’ higher proportion of away losses (59%), I project a narrow San Carlos victory.

I project BTTS - Yes as most likely (68%) because San Carlos posts a seasonal BTTS rate of 78% versus Pérez Zeledón's 47%, and in the last 5 matches 60% vs 40%, providing a strong signal for both teams to score. Both teams concede an average of 1.44 (San Carlos) and 1.82 (Pérez Zeledón) goals this season, and in the last 5 games they concede 2.2 and 2.0 goals respectively, indicating vulnerable defenses. San Carlos generates 1.51 xG on average and 5.06 shots on target with a 12% conversion, while Pérez Zeledón has 1.41 xG and 3.94 shots on target with a 7% conversion and the away defense allows 1.97 xG, which increases the likelihood of goals for both sides. Additionally, matches over 2.5 goals occur in 56% and 59% of home and away fixtures, and the league averages 2.49 goals per game, confirming a tendency toward higher-scoring matches. With low clean sheet expected probabilities of 11% and 12% and San Carlos's attacking advantage (1.56 goals per game vs 0.88 for Pérez Zeledón), the BTTS scenario appears stronger than a one-sided shutout.

Based on xG: San Carlos has an attacking xG of 1.51, while Pérez Zeledón concedes an average xG of 1.97, yielding an estimated 1.74 goals for the home side; Pérez Zeledón has an attacking xG of 1.41 against San Carlos’s conceded xG of 1.59, translating to about 1.50 goals for the visitors. Total expected goals equal 3.24, above the league average of 2.49, suggesting a higher goal count. Seasonal percentages show Over 1.5 in 83% of San Carlos matches and 71% of Pérez Zeledón matches, while Over 2.5 occurs in 56% and 59% of cases respectively, supporting a 2–3 goal scenario. San Carlos averages 5.06 shots on target vs. Pérez Zeledón’s 3.94 and has higher conversion 12% vs 7%, so the home side has an advantage in chance conversion. A Poisson model with lambda=3.24 gives roughly an 83% probability of Over 1.5, about 63% for Over 2.5 and around 41% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal is a play on Over 1.5.

San Carlos led at the break in 28% of matches, while half-time draws occurred in 44% of their games; Pérez Zeledón were level at the break in 59% of appearances, making a half-time draw the most likely state. Over 90 minutes San Carlos have 28% wins and 44% draws, so a full-time draw is also common. The hosts have slightly better xG (1.51 vs 1.41) and more shots on target (5.06 vs 3.94), but their shot conversion is 12% versus 7% for their opponents; meanwhile 78% of San Carlos matches see goals at both ends, which favors 1-1 outcomes. Pérez Zeledón concede an average of 1.97 xG per match and have conceded as many as 12 goals in the 76–90 minute window, creating a risk of a late goal, however the high number of half-time and full-time draws argues for the draw holding. As a result the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw after 90 minutes (X/X).