San Miguel vs Ferro Carril Oeste: match statistics
San Miguel vs Ferro Carril Oeste: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
San Miguel played against Ferro Carril Oeste in Prim B Nacional (Argentina). The game was played on July 11, 2026. Venue: Estadio Malvinas Argentinas. Final score: 0:1.
Recent form
San Miguel has 1 win, 4 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Ferro Carril Oeste has 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, with 2.60 points per game.
Scoring records
San Miguel scores 0.89 goals per game and allows 1.05. Ferro Carril Oeste scores 1.16 and allows 0.74. Games in this league average 1.87 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 47% of San Miguel's games and 42% of Ferro Carril Oeste's. The Over 2.5 rates are 26% and 32%, compared with league averages of 40% for BTTS and 30% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Ferro Carril Oeste has the higher season xG average, 1.51 to 1.35 per game. San Miguel takes 10.1 shots per game, while Ferro Carril Oeste takes 13.2.
First-half and second-half trends
San Miguel leads at halftime in 26% of its games and scores 0.53 goals per game after halftime. Ferro Carril Oeste leads at halftime in 11% and scores 0.89 after halftime.
When the teams score
San Miguel's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (4 goals). For Ferro Carril Oeste, it is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Prim B Nacional games average 1.87 goals. Both teams score in 40% of games, and 30% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 2 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ferro Carril Oeste holds a clear seasonal and form advantage: they have won 11 of 19 matches this season versus San Miguel’s 5 wins, and in the last 5 fixtures the visitors recorded 4 wins and 1 draw while the hosts have 1 win and 4 draws. Offensively Ferro scored 22 goals this season (7 in the last 5) compared to San Miguel’s 17 (6 in the last 5), with last-5 points averages of 2.6 for Ferro and 1.4 for San Miguel. The visitors are also more efficient with shots: on average 3.6 shots on target and a 12% conversion rate away versus 3.22 shots on target and an 8% conversion rate for the hosts at home. Defensively Ferro performs better — conceding on average 0.6 goals away and keeping clean sheets in 60% of matches, while San Miguel concedes 0.78 goals at home and has 44% clean sheets. Although San Miguel generates higher xG at home (1.7 versus 1.3 xG for Ferro away), the advantage in results, efficiency and form leads me to predict an away victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
San Miguel at home scores on average 1.0 goals per match (xG 1.76) and concedes 0.89 goals season-to-date, while Ferro away scores 1.3 goals (xG 1.3) and concedes only 0.6 goals for the season. Ferro has a high clean sheet rate of 60% away versus San Miguel’s 22% at home, but their xG against of 1.16 is significantly higher than the actual 0.6 goals conceded, suggesting potential regression. Both teams have BTTS at 60% in their last 5 matches; in that period San Miguel scored 6 and conceded 4, Ferro scored 7 and conceded 3, indicating both sides are regularly finding the net recently. Counters to this are the league context: average goals 1.87 per match, league BTTS level 40% and a very high clean sheet rate of 77%, which lowers the overall BTTS probability. Considering San Miguel’s strong home xG (1.76), Ferro’s elevated xG against (1.16) and the recent 60% BTTS for both teams, I forecast BTTS - Yes at 62% versus 38% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for San Miguel and 1.06 for Ferro, totaling 2.52, which under a Poisson distribution corresponds to roughly a 72% probability of Over 1.5. San Miguel averages 1.76 xG per match while Ferro concedes 1.16 xG on average, justifying the home side’s 1.46 expected goals; Ferro posts 1.30 xG while San Miguel allows 0.82 xG on average, hence 1.06 for the visitors. Seasonal metrics show Over 2.5 is less frequent (33% for San Miguel, 30% for Ferro and 30% in the league), so the 2.5 line is less convincing (the model assigns it about a 46% probability). Over 3.5 is unlikely according to season rates (0–10%) and the model (~25%), therefore the strongest signal from the data remains Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Visitors show better seasonal performance: 2.1 points per game and a 60% win rate versus the hosts' 1.78 points and 56% wins, while keeping a clean sheet in 60% of matches (hosts 22%). Despite the hosts’ higher xG (1.76 vs 1.3), the visitors are more efficient in finishing (conversion 12% vs 6%), which increases their chances of scoring from fewer chances. At half-time the data favors a draw: average first-half goals are 0.89 for the hosts and 0.5 for the visitors, and the visitors were level at the break in 80% of matches (hosts 44%), so HT draw is likely. In the second half the visitors have a clear advantage: 1.4 goals on average vs 1.0 for the hosts and 70% wins in second halves (hosts 56%), which supports a turnaround in favor of the away side; therefore I pick X/2 as the best scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| San Miguel | Ferro Carril Oeste | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Ferro Carril Oeste is 86% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - San Miguel · 2.6 pts / game - Ferro Carril Oeste
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ferro Carril Oeste is 30% better for: goals scored per game.
0.89 goals / game - San Miguel · 1.16 goals / game - Ferro Carril Oeste
Ferro Carril Oeste is 42% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.05 goals / game - San Miguel · 0.74 goals / game - Ferro Carril Oeste
San Miguel scores in 68% of games (13 of 19 meczów), while Ferro Carril Oeste keeps a clean sheet in 42% (8 of 19 meczów).
Ferro Carril Oeste scores in 74% of games (14 of 19 meczów), while San Miguel keeps a clean sheet in 37% (7 of 19 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - San Miguel
Over / Under - Ferro Carril Oeste
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
San Miguel is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.26 pts / game - San Miguel · 0.95 pts / game - Ferro Carril Oeste
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
San Miguel - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 26% of games and wins 26%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Ferro Carril Oeste - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 11% of games and wins 58%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
San Miguel
Ferro Carril Oeste
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prim B Nacional).
Teams vs league
| San Miguel | Liga | Ferro Carril Oeste | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 1.95 | 1.87 | • 1.89 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 47% | 40% | ▲ 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 26% | 30% | ▲ 32% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 37% | 39% | ▲ 42% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 63% | 56% | ▼ 47% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 68% | 70% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from San Miguel's perspective: 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Ferro Carril Oeste. Games average 1.67 goals, and both teams scored in 33% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of San Miguel vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
The Prim B Nacional match finished San Miguel 0:1 Ferro Carril Oeste. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between San Miguel and Ferro Carril Oeste?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches San Miguel won 2, Ferro Carril Oeste won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before San Miguel vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
San Miguel score 0.89 goals per game on average and Ferro Carril Oeste 1.16. The Prim B Nacional average is 1.87 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 30% of games. Both teams score in 47% of San Miguel's matches and 42% of Ferro Carril Oeste's.
What form are San Miguel and Ferro Carril Oeste in?
Over the last 5 games San Miguel have a 1-4-0 record (1.40 points per game) and Ferro Carril Oeste 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for San Miguel vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for San Miguel vs Ferro Carril Oeste: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.