Sanat Naft vs Pars Jam Bushehr: match statistics

Sanat Naft has a clear home advantage: they win 64% of home matches, have a +13 home goal difference and concede just 0.5 goals per home game while keeping clean sheets in 50% of those matches. Offensively the hosts average 1.43 goals per home game with an xG of 1.13 and 9.63 shots, compared to Pars Jam who record 1.15 goals away with an xG of 0.96 and only 5.67 shots. Pars Jam are, however, more efficient per shot (18% conversion vs 14% for Sanat Naft) and average 4.0 shots on target per away match versus the hosts’ 2.88, so they can be dangerous despite limited chances. Both teams have posted similar recent form — 1.0 point per match over the last five games — with Sanat Naft scoring 1 goal in their last 5 and Pars Jam 2 goals, indicating a temporary dip in finishing for both sides. Considering the hosts’ superior chance creation (xG 1.13 vs 0.96), greater possession control (54% vs 49%) and almost faultless home defense, I forecast a home win.

I predict BTTS - No with 75% probability versus 25% for Yes. Home side Sanat Naft have a season BTTS rate of 29% and kept a clean sheet in 57% of matches, while Pars Jam show BTTS 54% and clean sheets in 31% of games; the defensive profile of the hosts therefore dominates. In the last 5 matches both teams registered BTTS 0% (last 5: 0.0 for both), and the goal averages in that period are 0.2 scored and 0.6 conceded for the home team and 0.4 scored and 0.4 conceded for the visitors, indicating low scoring. Additionally, the league shows BTTS at only 30% and an overall 1.48 goals per match, with 94% of league matches resulting in a clean sheet, which strongly supports No. Although seasonal goals scored averages are 1.07 (home) and 1.15 (away), totaling 2.22, the low goals conceded averages (0.64 and 0.85) and the absence of BTTS in the last 5 meetings provide the strongest signal for both teams not to score.

For estimating expected goals I took the average of goals scored and goals conceded: Sanat Naft scores 1.07 on average, Pars Jam concedes 0.85, giving 0.96 for the home side ((1.07+0.85)/2=0.96); similarly Pars Jam scores 1.15 and the hosts concede 0.64, yielding 0.90 for the away side ((1.15+0.64)/2=0.90), total 1.86. In xG data the away xG is 0.96 while the home xG is listed as 0.0 (suspicious/incomplete), so I rely mainly on goals scored and conceded averages. With lambda=1.86 from a Poisson distribution we have P(0)=0.156 and P(1)=0.290 (sum 0.446), so the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) ≈55.4%; probability of 3+ goals (Over 2.5) ≈28.4%; 4+ goals (Over 3.5) ≈11.7%. Seasonal metrics confirm a low-scoring profile: seasonOver25Percentage_home 29% and away 31%; hosts have 57% clean sheets and hosts' BTTS is only 29% (away 54%). Therefore the strongest signal is Under 2.5 (under ~72% vs over ~28%), although Over 1.5 remains moderately likely (~55%).

I forecast a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X) as the most likely scenario. Sanat Naft were level at the break in 50% of their home matches, while Pars Jam were level at half-time in 33% of their away games, yielding an average of approximately a 41.5% probability of a draw after the first 45 minutes. Pars Jam led at the break in 50% of their away fixtures and have a higher first-half goals average (0.67 versus the hosts’ 0.43), but Sanat Naft are stronger after the interval — they score on average 0.64 goals in second halves and hold a positive second-half goal difference (+6 versus Pars’s -2). Home teams carry a lead from half-time to full-time in 64% of cases, while visitors do so in only 42%, so in practice an early Pars Jam lead does not necessarily translate into a win, which increases the likelihood of a draw both at half-time and at full-time.