Sandnes Ulf vs Raufoss: match statistics

Sandnes Ulf is the favorite in this match: at home they average 1.67 goals per game and have won 50% of home matches, while Raufoss score only 0.83 goals away and have just a 17% away win rate. The hosts create significantly better chances — on average 13.5 shots with 5 on target and xG 1.49 at home, versus 8.33 shots with 1.83 on target and xG 0.91 for the visitors, indicating a qualitative attacking advantage for Sandnes. Defensively the gap is even wider: Raufoss concede 3.0 goals on average away with xG against 2.29, while Sandnes concede 1.17 at home with xG against 1.23; in the last 5 matches the visitors have conceded 14 goals and the hosts 8. Form trends also favor the home side — Sandnes scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches and average 1.8 points per game in that period, Raufoss have scored 10 in their last five but average only 1.2 points per game and have 0% clean sheets away. Considering the higher efficiency and superior home xG (1.49 vs 0.91), the lower average goals conceded (1.17 vs 3.0) and 33% clean sheets for Sandnes versus 0% for Raufoss, I predict a home win.

Both teams have a season BTTS rate of 67% (Sandnes Ulf 67% and Raufoss 67%), while the league average BTTS is 57%, providing an initial edge toward a both-teams-to-score scenario. Sandnes averages 1.83 goals per game with xG 1.44, registering 13.0 shots and 3.67 shots on target, whereas Raufoss concedes on average 3.0 goals per game with xG against 2.29, so the home side has realistic scoring opportunities. Raufoss scores only 0.83 goals season-to-date, reducing their offensive reliability, but in the last 5 matches they have scored 10 goals (2.0 avg) and their clean sheet percentage is 0%, meaning they almost always concede. Additionally, the over 2.5 goals percentage is high (Sandnes 67%, Raufoss 83%) and the over 2.5 + BTTS combination stands at 50% for the home side and 67% for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of goal exchanges. Based on these figures I assign a 72% probability to BTTS 'Yes' and 28% to 'No' and select 'yes' as the strongest signal due to the 67% BTTS for both teams, Raufoss' 0% clean sheets and Raufoss conceding an average of 3.0 goals.

I estimate total expected goals at 3.10: Sandnes Ulf ~1.87 and Raufoss ~1.23. I calculated these as average xG: Sandnes has attack xG 1.44, Raufoss xG against 2.29 — average gives 1.87; similarly for Raufoss (attack xG 0.91 and xG against Sandnes 1.55 → 1.23). Seasonal data support the over: over 1.5 goals occurred in 83% of Sandnes matches and 83% of Raufoss matches, and over 2.5 occurred in 67% of Sandnes fixtures and 83% of Raufoss fixtures (average ~75%). Both teams had BTTS in 67% of matches, Sandnes averages 3.67 shots on target versus Raufoss 1.83, and the league averages 3.63 goals per match — this increases the likelihood of at least two goals. Therefore I recommend the over side at the 1.5 line (estimated probability over 1.5 ≈83%, over 2.5 ≈75%, over 3.5 ≈42%).

Sandnes Ulf has a clear offensive edge: on average 1.83 goals per game versus 0.83 for Raufoss, xG 1.44 versus 0.91, 13.0 shots versus 8.33 and 3.67 shots on target versus 1.83. The visitors are defensively vulnerable — conceding 3.0 goals per game on average with xG against 2.29, and they were trailing at the break in 4 matches (67%), which increases the hosts’ chances to lead at the break. Half-Time statistics show the home side scores on average 0.83 goals by the break versus 0.5 for the visitors, and Sandnes led at half-time in 2 matches (33%), so the first half often gives the home team initiative. Sandnes is also dangerous late on (5 goals in minutes 76–90), while Raufoss conceded 5 goals in that interval, which raises the likelihood that a half-time draw will turn into a home win after 90 minutes. On this basis the best signal is Sandnes leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time (1/1).