Santa Fe vs Once Caldas: match statistics

Santa Fe as the home side shows strong metrics: at home they score on average 2.0 goals per game, have average xG 1.53 and 5.55 shots on target per game, while registering only 9% of matches without scoring. Once Caldas away scores 1.3 goals per game with xG 1.31 and 4.7 shots on target per game, and their away win rate is only 20% with as many as 70% draws, which indicates a tendency to split points. Both teams have similar form over the last 5 matches (each with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss and an average of 2.0 points per game), but Once Caldas scored 11 goals in those 5 matches versus Santa Fe’s 6 goals, showing their short-term attacking momentum. Considering Santa Fe’s clear advantage in quality of chances (xG 1.53 vs 1.31 and 5.55 vs 4.7 shots on target), better home record (45% wins and home goal difference +11) and lower average xG against (1.12 vs 1.55), I back the home win; proposed probabilities are 50% home, 30% draw and 20% away.

Both teams show very high season BTTS rates: Santa Fe 75% and Once Caldas 80% (average 77.5%), well above the league average of 53%. Clean sheets are rare — Santa Fe keeps them in 17% of matches, Once Caldas in 20% — and average goals conceded are 1.25 for Santa Fe at home and 1.10 for Once Caldas away, which increases the chance of goals from both sides. Offensive metrics confirm scoring potential: Santa Fe generates 1.83 xG and an average of 6.42 shots on target, Once Caldas has 1.31 xG and 4.7 shots on target, with opponents' xG at 1.36 and 1.55 respectively, so scoring opportunities arise for both teams. In the last 5 matches the BTTS rate dropped to 40% for both sides, but Once Caldas scored 11 goals (2.2 avg) and conceded 4 (0.8), and Santa Fe scored 6 and conceded 3, indicating at least one side can score regularly. Overall, based on strong season BTTS signals (75%/80%), low clean sheet rates (17%/20%) and the xG/shots profile, the best pick is BTTS - Yes with a probability of 78% versus 22% for No.

The xG model (averaging home offensive xG 1.83 and away defensive xG 1.55) yields 1.69 xG for Santa Fe, while averaging away attack xG 1.31 and home defense xG 1.36 gives 1.34 xG for Once Caldas — a combined 3.03 expected goals. Converting to a Poisson distribution with mu=3.03 gives ~80% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and ~58% probability of at least 3 goals (Over 2.5), which aligns with seasonal over rates: Santa Fe Over1.5 83% and Once Caldas 90%, Over2.5 respectively 58% and 40%. Both teams have a high share of matches with both teams scoring — 75% for Santa Fe and 80% for Once Caldas — and a clear difference in shots and shots on target: 17.08 shots and 6.42 on target for Santa Fe versus 11.2 and 4.7 for Once Caldas, increasing the likelihood of goals. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Once Caldas scored 11 goals (avg 2.2) and Santa Fe 6 goals (avg 1.2), shifting the offensive balance toward a higher-scoring game. Consequently, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (estimated 83% chance), Over 2.5 has moderate support (58%), and Over 3.5 remains less likely (36%).

Santa Fe has a clear offensive edge: on average 2.08 goals per match versus 1.30 for Once Caldas, xG 1.83 vs 1.31 and more shots 17.08 vs 11.2 with more on target 6.42 vs 4.7, which increases the chance of a lead at the break. The hosts led at half-time in 5 matches (42%) compared to 2 matches (20%) for the visitors, and the average goals by half-time are 1.0 for Santa Fe vs 0.6 for Once Caldas with an average goals conceded by half-time of 0.5 for both teams, so the signal for HT lead is strong. In second halves Santa Fe scores on average 1.08 goals versus 0.7 for Once Caldas and at home collects on average 2.0 points per match vs 1.3 for the visitors, which increases the probability of maintaining the advantage. Although in 75% of the hosts’ matches and 80% of the visitors’ matches both teams score at least once, Santa Fe’s superiority in xG and chance creation and the higher share of half-time leads point toward a scenario of leading at half-time and winning full-time for the hosts (1/1).