Santos vs Fluminense: match statistics

The favorite is Fluminense (2): they sit 5th versus Santos’ 14th, have 6 wins this season compared to the home side’s 3, and have scored 18 goals versus 14. On the road, the visitors average 15 shots and 5.4 on target per match, while Santos at home records 11.17 shots and 2.83 on target; average xG is 1.66 for Fluminense versus 1.22 for Santos, indicating superior quality of chances for the visitors. Santos do, however, possess a defensive home edge — conceding only 0.83 goals per game, with a 50% home win rate and 33% clean sheets, so they can limit opponents. In the last 5 matches Santos have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses with 5 goals scored and an average of 1.4 points per match; Fluminense have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses with 6 goals and 1.0 point per match, reflecting some instability from the visitors. In summary, higher xG (1.66 vs 1.22), more shots on target (5.4 vs 2.83) and the superior league position translate into better chances for the away side, although Santos’ solid defense leaves a realistic chance of a draw.

Both teams show high seasonal BTTS rates: Santos 67% and Fluminense 80%, indicating that most matches see both sides score. From an xG perspective, Santos produces 1.83 xG while Fluminense concedes 1.52 xG; Fluminense posts 1.66 xG and Santos’ defense concedes 1.18 xG, which suggests both teams have the potential to create and allow scoring opportunities. In the last 5 matches Santos recorded BTTS in only 40% with averages of 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, whereas Fluminense has BTTS in 80% with averages of 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded, so Fluminense’s form significantly increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. Additionally, Santos averages 6.83 shots on target versus 5.4 for Fluminense, and the seasonal clean sheet percentages 33% (Santos) vs 20% (Fluminense) and matches over 2.5 goals 67% vs 40% point to conditions favorable for goals at both ends. Consequently I recommend BTTS - Yes as the stronger signal and assess its probability at 75% versus 25% for No.

I base expected goals on xG: Santos has xG_for 1.83, Fluminense 1.66, giving a combined 3.49 expected goals. A Poisson model with mean 3.49 indicates probability of Over 1.5 goals ≈86% (1 - P(0) - P(1) = 86.3%), Over 2.5 ≈68% (≈67.7%) and Over 3.5 ≈46% (≈46.1%). Seasonal metrics also support Over: Santos has 67% of matches with >1.5 goals, Fluminense 100%, and BTTS rates of 67% and 80% respectively; additionally, shots on target 6.83 vs 5.4 and conversion rates 11% vs 9% increase scoring likelihood. Although percentages of matches above 3.5 are lower (Santos 33%, Fluminense 20%), the high combined xG of 3.49 and Fluminense’s last 5 matches with xG_for 2.09 argue that Over 1.5 is the strongest and least risky selection.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). In the last 5 matches Santos had a half-time draw in 80% of games and Fluminense in 60%, and the average goals at the break are similar: 0.83 (Santos) versus 0.80 (Fluminense), indicating an evenly contested first half. After the break the home side gains the advantage — Santos averages 1.67 goals in second halves and earns 1.4 points in second halves over the last 5 matches, while Fluminense has 0.8 points, so the chances of a Santos turnaround after half-time are higher. This is supported by seasonal offensive metrics: Santos scores 1.83 goals at home on average with an xG of 1.83 and 6.83 shots on target (11% conversion), whereas Fluminense averages 1.40 goals and an away xG of 1.66 with 5.4 shots on target (9%). Additionally, Santos wins 83% of home matches versus Fluminense’s 20% away win rate, and the second halves of both teams see goals in approximately 80% of cases over the last 5 matches, which reinforces the X/1 signal.