São Paulo vs Bahia: match statistics
São Paulo vs Bahia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
São Paulo play Bahia in Serie A (Brazil). The match date is 3 May 2026 at 21:00. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
São Paulo: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Bahia: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
São Paulo scores 1.28 and concedes 1.11 goals per match. Bahia scores 1.47 and concedes 1.26. League average: 2.64 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: São Paulo 56%, Bahia 68%. Over 2.5: São Paulo 39%, Bahia 53%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Bahia has higher xG: 1.62 vs 1.35. São Paulo: 11.8 shots per match, Bahia: 14.5.
Match halves
São Paulo: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.89. Bahia: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.74.
Goals by minute
São Paulo: 61-75 (6 goals). Bahia: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.64 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Match description
São Paulo has a clear home advantage: they have won 83% of home matches, have a home goal difference of +8 and score on average 1.83 goals while conceding only 0.5 per game. In the last 5 fixtures São Paulo have scored 5 and conceded 2, recording 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, whereas Bahia over the same period have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, scoring 6 and conceding 10. As visitors Bahia register more shots on target (4.33 vs 3.5) but display lower conversion (11% vs 14% for São Paulo) and average only 1.17 goals while conceding 1.33 away. In terms of chance quality São Paulo produce higher home xG (1.40) than Bahia do on the road (1.25), while Bahia allow as much as 1.91 xG per away match, indicating a weaker away defence. Considering São Paulo’s 50% clean sheet rate at home, the superior points-per-game in the last 5 matches (2.0 vs 0.8) and Bahia’s 10 goals conceded in their last 5 fixtures, I predict a home victory.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| São Paulo | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Bahia is 300% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - São Paulo · 1.6 pts / match - Bahia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bahia is 15% better for: goals scored per match.
1.28 goals / match - São Paulo · 1.47 goals / match - Bahia
São Paulo is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.11 goals / match - São Paulo · 1.26 goals / match - Bahia
São Paulo scores in 78% of matches (14 of 18 matches), while Bahia keeps a clean sheet in 26% (5 of 19 matches).
Bahia scores in 95% of matches (18 of 19 matches), while São Paulo keeps a clean sheet in 22% (4 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — São Paulo
Over / Under — Bahia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Bahia is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.22 pts / match - São Paulo · 1.32 pts / match - Bahia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
São Paulo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Bahia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
São Paulo
Bahia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| São Paulo | Liga | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.39 | 2.64 | ▲ 2.74 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 56% | 58% | ▲ 68% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 39% | 50% | ▲ 53% |
| Clean sheets | • 22% | 23% | ▲ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 77% | ▲ 95% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 94% | 78% | ▼ 68% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): São Paulo 1 - 0 - 1 Bahia. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of São Paulo vs Bahia?
The Serie A match finished São Paulo 2:2 Bahia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between São Paulo and Bahia?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 1, Bahia won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before São Paulo vs Bahia?
São Paulo score 1.28 goals per game on average and Bahia 1.47. The Serie A average is 2.64 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 56% of São Paulo's matches and 68% of Bahia's.
What form are São Paulo and Bahia in?
Over the last 5 games São Paulo have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Bahia 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for São Paulo vs Bahia?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for São Paulo vs Bahia: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.