São Paulo vs Mirassol: match statistics
São Paulo vs Mirassol: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
São Paulo played against Mirassol in Serie A (Brazil). The game was played on April 26, 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
São Paulo has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.80 points per game. Mirassol has 1 win, 0 draws and 4 losses, with 0.60 points per game.
Scoring records
São Paulo scores 1.33 goals per game and allows 0.92. Mirassol scores 1.18 and allows 1.55. Games in this league average 2.63 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of São Paulo's games and 64% of Mirassol's. The Over 2.5 rates are 33% and 64%, compared with league averages of 57% for BTTS and 48% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Mirassol has the higher season xG average, 1.66 to 1.27 per game. São Paulo takes 11.2 shots per game, while Mirassol takes 15.3.
First-half and second-half trends
São Paulo leads at halftime in 25% of its games and scores 1.00 goals per game after halftime. Mirassol leads at halftime in 27% and scores 0.55 after halftime.
When the teams score
São Paulo's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (5 goals). For Mirassol, it is minutes 16-30 (3 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Serie A games average 2.63 goals. Both teams score in 57% of games, and 48% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a São Paulo win (1): the hosts have an 80% home win rate, a positive goal difference of +7 and average 2.0 goals scored per match versus just 0.6 conceded. Mirassol sit 18th, winning only 20% of away matches with a negative goal difference of -2; the visitors average 1.2 goals scored away and concede 1.6 per match. São Paulo are more efficient — hosts convert 17% of shots with an average of 4 shots on target, while Mirassol have a 10% conversion and 3.6 shots on target; additionally Mirassol failed to score in 40% of away games versus São Paulo’s 20% at home, which further boosts the home advantage. In terms of chance quality xG is similar (São Paulo 1.37 at home vs Mirassol 1.39 away), but Mirassol concede significantly more expected goals against (1.73 vs 1.08), indicating an inferior away defense. Form confirms this view — over the last 5 matches São Paulo averaged 1.8 points per game and Mirassol 1.4, so I estimate home win probability at 72%, draw 16% and away win 12%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal indicators strongly support BTTS: São Paulo has BTTS in 67% of matches and Mirassol in 60%, versus the league average of 56%, providing a solid basis for a "both teams to score" bet. Additionally, São Paulo generates xG 1.89 per match against Mirassol's conceded xG 1.73, and the home side averages 6.33 shots on target (vs 3.6 for Mirassol), indicating São Paulo will create many chances against a team that has conceded 17 goals this season compared to São Paulo's 11. This is partially offset by São Paulo's recent form — only 20% BTTS in the last 5 and an average of 0.8 goals conceded — while Mirassol has 60% BTTS in the last 5 and concedes 1.2 on average, which weakens the home "yes" signal. Considering the seasonal goals averages of 1.17 and 1.2 for the two teams and season-long Over2.5 rates linked to BTTS (67% and 60%), the balance of signals (high seasonal BTTS and São Paulo's xG advantage versus Mirassol's high goals conceded rate) still leads me to select "yes". I therefore estimate BTTS probability at about 65% for "yes" and 35% for "no".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects a combined total of approximately 3.23 expected goals: São Paulo about 1.81 (attack xG 1.89 vs xG typically conceded by Mirassol 1.73; (1.89+1.73)/2=1.81) and Mirassol about 1.42 (attack xG 1.39 vs xG typically conceded by São Paulo 1.45; (1.39+1.45)/2=1.42). Seasonal averages confirm the offensive nature of the matchup: São Paulo scores 1.17 and concedes 1.50, Mirassol scores 1.20 and concedes 1.60, which together with xG indicates an above-average goal output. Both teams have high BTTS rates (67% vs 60%) and high percentages of matches Over 2.5 goals (67% for São Paulo and 60% for Mirassol, average ~64%), further supporting Over 2.5. São Paulo creates significantly more chances (17.5 shots and 6.33 on target vs 12.6 and 3.6 for Mirassol), increasing the real likelihood of converting xG into goals. Based on this I recommend a bet on Over 2.5 as the strongest signal (I estimate Over 2.5 at ~72% vs Under 28%); Over 1.5 is even more likely (88%), while Over 3.5 remains less certain (~36%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
In the last 5 matches São Paulo led at the break in 60% of games, while for the season the percentage of halftime leads was 33%, suggesting an improvement in the home side’s form. At halftime São Paulo average 0.67 goals for and 0.33 conceded, whereas Mirassol’s halftime record is 0.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, so statistically the hosts have the advantage in the first 45 minutes. At the same time São Paulo struggle after the break — they concede on average 1.17 goals in the second half, and in 100% of their matches a goal occurs after the break, while xG shows 1.89 for São Paulo versus 1.39 for Mirassol and 6.33 shots on target compared to 3.6, which means they create chances but risk losing a lead. Therefore the most likely scenario is São Paulo leading at half-time and a draw at full-time (1/X), which I assign 22%; the 1/1 option receives 17% and 1/2 10%, reflecting the greatest risk of surrendering a lead in the second half. Additionally, recent form over the last 5 matches (São Paulo 60% wins, Mirassol 40%) makes a home win still possible, but the indications for a draw after leading at halftime are strongest.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| São Paulo | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
São Paulo is 33% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / game - São Paulo · 0.6 pts / game - Mirassol
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
São Paulo is 13% better for: goals scored per game.
1.33 goals / game - São Paulo · 1.18 goals / game - Mirassol
São Paulo is 68% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.92 goals / game - São Paulo · 1.55 goals / game - Mirassol
São Paulo scores in 75% of games (9 of 12 meczów), while Mirassol keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 11 meczów).
Mirassol scores in 64% of games (7 of 11 meczów), while São Paulo keeps a clean sheet in 25% (3 of 12 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - São Paulo
Over / Under - Mirassol
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mirassol is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.08 pts / game - São Paulo · 1.18 pts / game - Mirassol
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
São Paulo - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 25% of games and wins 50%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Mirassol - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 27% of games and wins 18%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
São Paulo
Mirassol
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| São Paulo | Liga | Mirassol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.25 | 2.63 | ▲ 2.73 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 57% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 48% | ▲ 64% |
| Clean sheets | • 25% | 24% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 74% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 76% | ▲ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from São Paulo's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses against Mirassol. Games average 2.50 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of São Paulo vs Mirassol?
The Serie A match finished São Paulo 1:0 Mirassol. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between São Paulo and Mirassol?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 0, Mirassol won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before São Paulo vs Mirassol?
São Paulo score 1.33 goals per game on average and Mirassol 1.18. The Serie A average is 2.63 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 50% of São Paulo's matches and 64% of Mirassol's.
What form are São Paulo and Mirassol in?
Over the last 5 games São Paulo have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Mirassol 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for São Paulo vs Mirassol?
The statistical background for São Paulo vs Mirassol — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.