Sarasota Paradise vs Corpus Christi: match statistics
Sarasota Paradise vs Corpus Christi: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Sarasota Paradise played against Corpus Christi in USL League One (United States). The game was played on April 22, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Sarasota Paradise has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.80 points per game. Corpus Christi has 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 0.50 points per game.
Scoring records
Sarasota Paradise scores 0.67 goals per game and allows 1.50. Corpus Christi scores 1.00 and allows 2.25. Games in this league average 2.80 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 33% of Sarasota Paradise's games and 75% of Corpus Christi's. The Over 2.5 rates are 33% and 75%, compared with league averages of 59% for BTTS and 55% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Sarasota Paradise has the higher season xG average, 1.41 to 1.26 per game. Sarasota Paradise takes 13.2 shots per game, while Corpus Christi takes 11.0.
First-half and second-half trends
Sarasota Paradise leads at halftime in 17% of its games and scores 0.33 goals per game after halftime. Corpus Christi leads at halftime in 0% and scores 0.50 after halftime.
When the teams score
Sarasota Paradise's most productive scoring window is minutes 61-75 (2 goals). For Corpus Christi, it is minutes 31-45+ (2 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
USL League One games average 2.80 goals. Both teams score in 59% of games, and 55% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win: Sarasota Paradise (16th) face Corpus Christi (17th). Both sides have 4 goals this season, but home metrics favor Sarasota. Sarasota concedes 1.25 goals per home match versus Corpus’s 2.25 away, with average xG against 1.15 vs 1.83, indicating greater defensive vulnerability for the visitors. In attack the hosts produce 1.59 xG at home and average 15.5 shots per game with 4 on target, while the visitors register 1.26 xG away and 11 shots with 3 on target; although the visitors’ conversion rate is 9% vs the hosts’ 6%, Sarasota’s superiority in chance creation is decisive. In the last 5 matches Sarasota scored 4 and conceded 8, averaging 0.8 points per game (form: d w l l), while Corpus scored 6 and conceded 10, averaging 1.0 point per game (form: w d d l l) — showing the visitors marginally pick up more points but concede just as often. Considering better home defense, higher xG and greater chance volume for the hosts, and Corpus’s lack of away wins (0), I give the higher probability to a Sarasota victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Data analysis indicates a tilt toward the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) scenario. Corpus Christi has a season BTTS of 75% and BTTS in the last 5 matches of 80% (4/5), a strong signal for the away side. Sarasota Paradise has a season BTTS of 0% (season data may be incomplete), but BTTS in the last 5 matches is 40%, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in those five games (4 scored, 8 conceded), so the home side also concedes. The visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals in the last 5 matches and 2.25 goals across the season, and total xG from the last 5 matches is 1.37 + 0.99 = 2.36, suggesting a sufficient number of chances from both sides. Considering the strong away signal (75–80%), average concessions of 1.6 vs 2.0 and a league BTTS rate of 59% with an average of 2.8 goals per match, I recommend BTTS = "Yes" with a probability of 75% vs 25%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on the last five matches' xG I calculated expected goals: 1.46 for Sarasota Paradise (home average xG 1.37 and xG against opponent 1.54 → (1.37+1.54)/2=1.46) and 1.16 for Corpus Christi (away average xG 0.99 and xG against home side 1.33 → (0.99+1.33)/2=1.16), total = 2.62 goals. With this total the Poisson distribution yields roughly a 74% chance for Over 1.5 goals, about 49% for Over 2.5 goals and about 27% for Over 3.5 goals. Additionally, Corpus as an away team has 75% of season matches over 2.5 goals, and 80% in the last 5 matches; Corpus scored 6 goals in the last 5 matches (average 1.2), which supports a scoring scenario. Sarasota conceded 8 goals in the last 5 matches (average 1.6), and the share of BTTS matches is 80% for Corpus in the last 5 and 59% league average, which also raises the probability of goals from both sides. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (over), since it has the highest probability and is supported by both xG values and seasonal over/BTTS indicators.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Corpus Christi concedes an average of 2.25 goals per match and has xG against 1.83 versus their xG for 1.26, indicating defensive issues and opponents’ superiority in chance creation. The visitors are particularly vulnerable after the break — they conceded 4 goals in minutes 76–90 and average 1.25 goals in second halves, which raises the risk of surrendering a lead late on. At half-time the visitors have not led all season (0% of matches leading at the break) and were trailing at half-time in 50% of games, while the hosts have a higher average half-time points tally in the last 5 matches (1.2 vs 0.6). Given also the 75% share of the visitors’ matches with both teams scoring (75% BTTS), I expect a game with goals; however the strongest signal is the hosts leading at half-time and holding on to win, hence the pick 1/1 (HT/FT).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Sarasota Paradise | Corpus Christi | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 24% | 27% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Sarasota Paradise is 60% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / game - Sarasota Paradise · 0.5 pts / game - Corpus Christi
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Corpus Christi is 49% better for: goals scored per game.
0.67 goals / game - Sarasota Paradise · 1 goals / game - Corpus Christi
Sarasota Paradise is 50% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.5 goals / game - Sarasota Paradise · 2.25 goals / game - Corpus Christi
Sarasota Paradise scores in 50% of games (3 of 6 meczów), while Corpus Christi keeps a clean sheet in 25% (1 of 4 meczów).
Corpus Christi scores in 75% of games (3 of 4 meczów), while Sarasota Paradise keeps a clean sheet in 17% (1 of 6 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Sarasota Paradise
Over / Under - Corpus Christi
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Sarasota Paradise is 134% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.17 pts / game - Sarasota Paradise · 0.5 pts / game - Corpus Christi
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sarasota Paradise - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 17% of games and wins 17%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.8 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Corpus Christi - second-half results
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Average goals per game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 75% |
| 3 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Clean sheet | 25% | 25% |
| No goal | 50% | 50% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (2 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Sarasota Paradise
Corpus Christi
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL League One).
Teams vs league
| Sarasota Paradise | Liga | Corpus Christi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.17 | 2.80 | ▲ 3.25 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 59% | ▲ 75% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 55% | ▲ 75% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 24% | • 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 33% | 75% | • 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 77% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Sarasota Paradise vs Corpus Christi?
The USL League One match finished Sarasota Paradise 2:1 Corpus Christi. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Sarasota Paradise vs Corpus Christi?
Sarasota Paradise score 0.67 goals per game on average and Corpus Christi 1.00. The USL League One average is 2.80 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Sarasota Paradise's matches and 75% of Corpus Christi's.
What form are Sarasota Paradise and Corpus Christi in?
Over the last 5 games Sarasota Paradise have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Corpus Christi 0-2-2 (0.50 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sarasota Paradise vs Corpus Christi?
The statistical background for Sarasota Paradise vs Corpus Christi — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.