Sarasota Paradise vs Fort Wayne: match statistics
Sarasota Paradise has the advantage in this matchup, even though both teams present identical form in the last five matches (3 wins, 2 losses). The key factor is the hosts' higher average xG in home matches (1.57 vs 1.00 xG for the visitors away), which proves greater offensive efficiency. Sarasota also generates more shots on target (13 vs 7 on average per match), which may translate into a larger number of scoring opportunities. Fort Wayne has weaker away statistics, conceding an average of 2 goals per match and not having earned a single point away this season. Although both teams have a 100% FTS% in their (home/away) matches, Sarasota's better xG indicators and higher offensive activity speak for their victory, although a draw cannot be ruled out given the even ball possession.
Sarasota Paradise vs Fort Wayne: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Sarasota Paradise play Fort Wayne in USL League One (United States). The match date is 15 March 2026 at 00:30. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Sarasota Paradise: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Fort Wayne: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Sarasota Paradise scores 0.94 and concedes 1.56 goals per match. Fort Wayne scores 1.50 and concedes 0.88. League average: 2.85 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Sarasota Paradise 50%, Fort Wayne 44%. Over 2.5: Sarasota Paradise 50%, Fort Wayne 44%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 59%.
xG, shots and style
Fort Wayne has higher xG: 1.46 vs 1.43. Sarasota Paradise: 12.2 shots per match, Fort Wayne: 12.9.
Match halves
Sarasota Paradise: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.67. Fort Wayne: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.69.
Goals by minute
Sarasota Paradise: 46-60 (5 goals). Fort Wayne: 46-60 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL League One: 2.85 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 59%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Match description
Sarasota Paradise has the advantage in this matchup, even though both teams present identical form in the last five matches (3 wins, 2 losses). The key factor is the hosts' higher average xG in home matches (1.57 vs 1.00 xG for the visitors away), which proves greater offensive efficiency. Sarasota also generates more shots on target (13 vs 7 on average per match), which may translate into a larger number of scoring opportunities. Fort Wayne has weaker away statistics, conceding an average of 2 goals per match and not having earned a single point away this season. Although both teams have a 100% FTS% in their (home/away) matches, Sarasota's better xG indicators and higher offensive activity speak for their victory, although a draw cannot be ruled out given the even ball possession.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Sarasota Paradise | Fort Wayne | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fort Wayne is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Sarasota Paradise · 2 pts / match - Fort Wayne
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fort Wayne is 60% better for: goals scored per match.
0.94 goals / match - Sarasota Paradise · 1.5 goals / match - Fort Wayne
Fort Wayne is 77% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.56 goals / match - Sarasota Paradise · 0.88 goals / match - Fort Wayne
Sarasota Paradise scores in 67% of matches (12 of 18 matches), while Fort Wayne keeps a clean sheet in 44% (7 of 16 matches).
Fort Wayne scores in 81% of matches (13 of 16 matches), while Sarasota Paradise keeps a clean sheet in 28% (5 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Sarasota Paradise
Over / Under — Fort Wayne
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Fort Wayne is 73% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.94 pts / match - Sarasota Paradise · 1.63 pts / match - Fort Wayne
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sarasota Paradise - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Fort Wayne - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Sarasota Paradise
Fort Wayne
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL League One).
Teams vs league
| Sarasota Paradise | Liga | Fort Wayne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.50 | 2.85 | ▼ 2.38 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 55% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 59% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 28% | 26% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 44% | 73% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 80% | ▼ 69% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of Sarasota Paradise vs Fort Wayne?
The USL League One match finished Sarasota Paradise 2:2 Fort Wayne. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Sarasota Paradise vs Fort Wayne?
Sarasota Paradise score 0.94 goals per game on average and Fort Wayne 1.50. The USL League One average is 2.85 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 59% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Sarasota Paradise's matches and 44% of Fort Wayne's.
What form are Sarasota Paradise and Fort Wayne in?
Over the last 5 games Sarasota Paradise have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Fort Wayne 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sarasota Paradise vs Fort Wayne?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.