Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison: match statistics
Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Sarasota Paradise play Forward Madison in USL League One (United States). The match date is 3 May 2026 at 01:30. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
Sarasota Paradise: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Forward Madison: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Sarasota Paradise scores 0.94 and concedes 1.56 goals per match. Forward Madison scores 1.86 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.85 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Sarasota Paradise 50%, Forward Madison 50%. Over 2.5: Sarasota Paradise 50%, Forward Madison 57%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 58%.
xG, shots and style
Forward Madison has higher xG: 1.49 vs 1.43. Sarasota Paradise: 12.2 shots per match, Forward Madison: 12.8.
Match halves
Sarasota Paradise: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.67. Forward Madison: half-time lead 64%, second-half goals 0.71.
Goals by minute
Sarasota Paradise: 46-60 (5 goals). Forward Madison: 16-30 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL League One: 2.85 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 58%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Match description
Sarasota Paradise averages 1.61 xG at home with 14.8 shots and 4.6 shots on target per match, while Forward Madison on the road records 1.04 xG with 7.5 shots and 3.5 on target, giving the hosts an advantage in chance creation. The visitors are, however, more efficient in finishing — conversion rate 17% versus the hosts’ 8% — and despite fewer attempts score on average 1.25 goals away versus the hosts’ 1.2 at home. Defensively Forward Madison concedes 1.0 goal on average away and Sarasota 1.2 at home, yet both teams have conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches, indicating vulnerability in both back lines. Considering the positive xG balance for the hosts (1.61 xG for vs 1.18 xG against) and the fact Sarasota generates significantly more chances, I give slight preference to the home side, although the visitors’ finishing efficiency keeps this match close to a draw.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Sarasota Paradise | Forward Madison | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Forward Madison is 160% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Sarasota Paradise · 2.6 pts / match - Forward Madison
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Forward Madison is 98% better for: goals scored per match.
0.94 goals / match - Sarasota Paradise · 1.86 goals / match - Forward Madison
Forward Madison is 56% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.56 goals / match - Sarasota Paradise · 1 goals / match - Forward Madison
Sarasota Paradise scores in 67% of matches (12 of 18 matches), while Forward Madison keeps a clean sheet in 29% (4 of 14 matches).
Forward Madison scores in 79% of matches (11 of 14 matches), while Sarasota Paradise keeps a clean sheet in 28% (5 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Sarasota Paradise
Over / Under — Forward Madison
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Forward Madison is 120% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.94 pts / match - Sarasota Paradise · 2.07 pts / match - Forward Madison
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sarasota Paradise - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Forward Madison - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 64% of matches and wins 57%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 0% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +7 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (9 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Sarasota Paradise
Forward Madison
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL League One).
Teams vs league
| Sarasota Paradise | Liga | Forward Madison | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.50 | 2.85 | • 2.86 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 55% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 58% | • 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 28% | 26% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 44% | 72% | ▲ 93% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 80% | ▼ 64% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison?
The USL League One match finished Sarasota Paradise 1:3 Forward Madison. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison?
Sarasota Paradise score 0.94 goals per game on average and Forward Madison 1.86. The USL League One average is 2.85 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 58% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Sarasota Paradise's matches and 50% of Forward Madison's.
What form are Sarasota Paradise and Forward Madison in?
Over the last 5 games Sarasota Paradise have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Forward Madison 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.