Sarpsborg 08 vs Vålerenga: match statistics

Sarpsborg 08 have a clearly stronger home profile: they win 50% of such fixtures and concede just 0.88 goals on average, while Vålerenga lose 50% of their away matches and allow opponents to score 2.50 goals per game. The hosts are also more consistent in front of goal at home, failing to score in only 13% of matches, whereas the visitors draw a blank in as many as 38% of their away appearances. Vålerenga do create more chances, averaging 16 shots, 5.88 shots on target and an xG of 1.82, compared with Sarpsborg’s 13.63 shots and xG of 1.52. Both teams have been in poor recent form, with Sarpsborg collecting 5 points from their last five matches and Vålerenga 4, although the visitors conceded as many as 16 goals during that spell. The hosts’ defensive edge and Vålerenga’s very weak away defense point towards a narrow Sarpsborg 08 victory.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by the high attacking potential of both sides: Sarpsborg score an average of 1.9 goals, while Vålerenga average 1.5, with both teams recording an identical average xG of 1.82. The defenses offer little margin for error, as the hosts concede an average of 1.8 goals per match and the visitors as many as 2.5, while they keep clean sheets in only 10% and 13% of their games, respectively. BTTS landed in 60% of Sarpsborg’s and as many as 80% of Vålerenga’s last five matches; during this period, Vålerenga scored 16 and conceded 16 goals. The hosts average 5.5 shots on target, while the visitors average 5.88, which, combined with the high xG against them—1.77 and 1.66—raises the likelihood of both teams finding the net. The risk to the BTTS - Yes scenario is that Sarpsborg fail to score in 30% of their matches and Vålerenga in 38%; however, the visitors’ weak defense and very open recent form clearly point towards goals at both ends.

Sarpsborg score an average of 1.9 goals at home, while Vålerenga concede as many as 2.5 goals per away match, which clearly supports a goal-heavy scenario for the hosts. The visitors create an average of 1.82 xG, while Sarpsborg allow opponents 1.77 xG, so their attacking contribution should also be significant. In their last five matches, Vålerenga scored 16 goals and recorded 100% of games with at least three goals, whereas Sarpsborg produced the same outcome in 60% of matches. The Over 1.5 goals line also has the strongest support in the season data: it has been covered in 80% of Sarpsborg’s matches and 88% of Vålerenga’s matches. The expected total of 3.65 goals provides a substantial safety margin for Over 1.5.

Sarpsborg 08 have the edge in the first halves: they average 1.10 goals before the break, while Vålerenga concede 1.38 goals per match during this period. The home side were leading at half-time in 30% of their matches, while the visitors were trailing after 45 minutes in as many as 50% of games, which clearly supports the scenario of Sarpsborg taking the lead. After the break, the hosts concede just 0.80 goals per match, compared with 1.13 for Vålerenga, while over the course of the season the visitors’ defense has allowed opponents an average of 2.50 goals. Both teams create a similar quality of chances, at 1.82 xG each, but Sarpsborg have a higher win rate, 40% compared with 25%, making it most likely that they will hold on to their lead until the final whistle.