Sassari Torres vs Ostia Mare Lidocalcio: match statistics

Sassari Torres have a clear home advantage: they won their only home match so far while keeping a clean sheet, whereas Ostia Mare have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home. The hosts create significantly more chances, averaging 21 shots and 7 on target per match compared with the visitors’ 10.5 and 3.5, while their average xG stands at 2.46 against the opponents’ 1.27. Ostia Mare have failed to score in 50% of their away matches, which is significant against a Sassari side that have yet to concede at home. Neither team has shown consistent form, but the hosts have won 2 of their last 5 matches and scored 5 goals during that spell, while the visitors have just 1 win and 4 goals over the same period. Sassari’s lower conversion rate of 5% leaves room for a competitive match, but the volume of chances created and home advantage point towards a home win.

Sassari Torres have recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of their matches so far, while this figure stands at 60% in each of the teams’ last five games. The hosts have not kept a single clean sheet and concede an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Ostia Mare also have 0% of matches without conceding. Torres’ attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.51 and 5.0 shots on target per game, whereas the visitors create chances worth an average of 1.27 xG. The main risk to BTTS is Ostia Mare’s weaker finishing, with just 0.8 goals scored across their last five matches, but the hosts’ defense allowed opponents 1.75 xG. Therefore, BTTS - Yes, or Goal/Goal, is more likely than a scenario in which at least one team fails to score (BTTS - No).

Both teams have conceded 1.8 goals per match over their last five games, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Sassari Torres averaged 1.50 xG, while Ostia Mare recorded 1.13 xG, alongside elevated xG conceded figures of 1.75 and 1.64, respectively. Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of the last five matches for each side, but the average goal totals were 2.8 for the hosts and 2.6 for the visitors, making the four-goal threshold clearly more difficult to reach. In the available season data, neither team had a match with more than 3.5 goals, while both recorded Under 3.5 in 100% of such fixtures. The projected total of 2.75 goals points to an outcome most likely to fall within the 2–3 goal range, making Under 3.5 the best-value option.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Ostia Mare victory at full-time, as the visitors have been level at the break in 60% of their last five matches and have not scored before half-time in any of them. Sassari Torres also offers no clear signal of taking an early lead: across their last five matches, they have averaged just 0.4 goals before the break and led at half-time in only 20% of those games. After the interval, Ostia Mare average 0.8 goals, while the matches involving both teams have produced at least one second-half goal in 100% of their last five appearances. The hosts concede an average of 1.8 goals per match, while their opponents create chances worth 1.27 xG; additionally, Sassari have lost 60% of their last five matches. The visitors’ advantage is not decisive, however, so a half-time draw remains more likely than Ostia Mare leading after the first half.