Scafatese vs Monopoli: match statistics

Both teams have lost every match played so far in their respective roles, while neither Scafatese at home nor Monopoli away have scored a goal yet. However, the visitors have a clearly more solid defense: Monopoli concede an average of 1.00 goal away from home, with an xG against of 1.03, whereas Scafatese allow opponents an xG of 2.19 and concede 2.00 goals per match. The hosts enjoy more possession, 63% compared with 56%, and attempt more shots, 13 versus 10, but this translates into just 2 shots on target per game and still no goals at home. Monopoli are also marginally more efficient in chance creation, with an average xG of 1.33 compared with Scafatese’s 1.51, while their better record over the last five matches — 2 wins and 1.4 points per game compared with 1 win and 1.2 points — gives the visitors the edge. A closely contested, relatively low-scoring match is expected, but Scafatese’s weaker defense increases Monopoli’s chances of securing a narrow victory.

The BTTS pick does not have a clear edge, as Monopoli have not scored a goal in the season data and have finished without scoring in 100% of their matches. Scafatese have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far this season, while both teams currently have a BTTS rate of 0%. Recent form is less conclusive, however: Scafatese had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 1.8 goals, while Monopoli scored an average of 1.0 goal during this period. The visitors also create chances worth 1.43 xG per match, but Monopoli’s stronger defense, conceding only 0.8 goals on average in their last 5 matches, increases the likelihood of a result in which at least one team fails to score.

The latest data points to a match closer to 2–3 goals than an open end-to-end battle, with a projected total of 2.60 goals. Scafatese have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded in their last 5 matches, while Monopoli have scored 1.0 and allowed 0.8 goals. The visitors’ attacking potential is reflected in their xG of 1.43 per match, but their defense allows only 1.17 xG on average, which limits the hosts’ scoring ceiling. Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of Scafatese’s last five matches, but in only 20% of Monopoli’s games, while both teams have recorded 100% of results below 3.5 goals in the available season sample. The strongest option is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as even a scenario with both teams scoring should most often finish with a maximum of three goals.

In the seasonal home data, Scafatese have won 100% of their matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding none, while Monopoli have lost 100% of their away fixtures, averaging 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The signal for a home advantage from the outset is clear: Scafatese led at the break in 100% of their home appearances, scoring an average of 1.0 goal before half-time, while Monopoli went into the interval behind in 100% of their away matches and failed to score before the break. The hosts also register more shots, 12 compared with 10, with an identical average of 3 shots on target, while their conversion rate stands at 17% and their opponents have not scored. The last five matches have been more evenly balanced, with both teams leading at half-time in 40% of their games, but Scafatese have the home advantage and have scored an average of another goal after the break at home. The most likely outcome therefore remains Scafatese leading at half-time and maintaining their victory through to full-time.