Schweinfurt vs 1860 München: match statistics

1860 München appears to be the favorite: they sit 8th with 15 wins, 10 draws and 10 losses and a goal difference of 52–47, while Schweinfurt are 20th with only 5 wins, 5 draws and 25 losses and a goal difference of 33–79. In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 4 goals, failed to win any (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses) and average 0.6 points, whereas 1860 scored 6 goals, recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, averaging 1.2 points. Schweinfurt create more chances at home (on average 12.06 shots and 4.71 on target per game) and have an xG of 1.46 per match, while the visitors average 10.24 shots, 3.29 on target and xG 1.25, so the hosts’ advantage in chance creation exists but is insufficient. The key difference is defense: Schweinfurt concede 1.88 goals at home on average and have conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches, while 1860 concede 1.35 away and have 29% clean sheets compared to 12% for the hosts, with xG against 1.93 vs 1.77. Given the hosts’ lack of wins and significantly worse goal record (33–79), I forecast an away win; estimated probabilities are home 15%, draw 25%, away 60%.

Schweinfurt has a seasonal BTTS rate of 72% versus 47% for 1860, with the league average at 64%, which already favors a 'both teams to score' scenario with a slight home bias. In the last 5 matches both teams show BTTS at 60%, and during that period they conceded on average 2.0 (Schweinfurt) and 1.6 (1860) goals per game, indicating vulnerability to conceding. Offensively Schweinfurt averages 1.83 goals per game and xG 1.55, 1860 has 1.12 goals and xG 1.25, while defensively 1860 allows xG against 1.77 versus 1.49 for the hosts; additionally, shots on target 4.89 vs 3.29 and conversion rates 15% vs 11% show that scoring chances will be present. Furthermore, 61% of Schweinfurt’s home matches finish over 2.5 goals, with 56% combining over 2.5 and BTTS, and the league average goals is 3.15; this strengthens the expectation of both sides scoring. Therefore I assess BTTS probability at 68% vs 32% against and recommend the 'yes' bet.

Both teams create plenty of chances: Schweinfurt averages 1.83 goals per match with xG 1.55, while 1860 München has 1.12 goals with xG 1.25, giving a combined xG of 2.80. The league average is 3.15 goals per match, and season Over 1.5 rates are 89% (Schweinfurt) and 76% (1860), so Over 1.5 looks like a strong signal (I estimate ~90%). Over 2.5 has moderate support: hosts 61% seasonally, visitors 53%, and the last 5 matches show xG 1.13 (Schweinfurt) and 1.69 (1860) totaling ~2.82, so I give ~62% for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is less likely — hosts have 50% Over 3.5 on the season versus 18% for the visitors and the combined xG 2.80 is below 3.5, so I assess ~30% for Over 3.5. The strongest play is Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side: over) due to high seasonal rates 89%/76% and a combined xG close to 2.8.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with the home side winning at full-time (X/1) — I assess its probability at 32%. Draws at half-time are common: hosts were level at the break in 44% of matches and visitors in 47%, with first-half goals averaging 1.44 for the home team versus 1.18 for the away side. After the break the home team is markedly stronger — they score an average of 1.11 goals in the second half, win 61% of second halves and average 1.72 goals in the latter half, whereas 1860 scores 0.71 goals after the interval and wins second halves in 41% of cases. Seasonal numbers also favor Schweinfurt: 1.83 average goals scored per match and 50% home-win rate versus 1.12 goals and a 35% away-win rate for 1860, which is why the scenarios X/1 (32%), X/X (18%) and 1/1 (12%) are the most probable.