SD Eibar vs Córdoba: match statistics

SD Eibar averages 1.75 goals scored and concedes only 0.85 at home, while Córdoba averages 1.45 scored and concedes 1.55 away, giving the hosts a clear defensive edge and a slight offensive advantage. In terms of quality of chances, Eibar’s home xG is 1.69 versus Córdoba’s away xG of 1.56, and xG against is 1.14 vs 1.46, meaning the hosts create marginally more expected chances and allow fewer. Eibar keeps 45% clean sheets at home and has a 65% home win rate, whereas Córdoba has only 15% clean sheets and 40% wins on the road, indicating greater stability for the hosts. Córdoba is in better form over the last 5 matches (4 wins and 2.4 points per game) than Eibar (3 wins and 1.8 pts per game), but Córdoba’s away average goals conceded (1.55) limits their chances. Considering Eibar’s stronger home defense, higher clean sheet rate and similar xG, I predict a home win; probability distribution: 60% Eibar, 20% draw, 20% Córdoba.

The BTTS scenario (Both Teams To Score) appears more likely based on season trends: SD Eibar has BTTS at 60%, Córdoba 75%, with a league average of 56%. This season Eibar scores 1.35 and concedes 1.35, while Córdoba scores 1.45 and concedes 1.55, meaning both teams regularly create and concede goals (especially Córdoba). The last-5 matches trend confirms this direction — BTTS in the last 5 is 60% for Eibar and 80% for Córdoba — and recent xG shows Córdoba generating 2.05 xG per game versus 1.57 xG against Eibar, which increases the probability of the visitors scoring. Additionally, Eibar averages 18 shots (5.55 on target) versus Córdoba’s 13.65 shots (5.2 on target), with conversion rates of 8% vs 11%, and Córdoba has only a 15% chance of a clean sheet (Eibar 30%); matches with over 2.5 goals occur in 55% and 70% of cases respectively, and the combination of over 2.5 and BTTS is 55%/65%. In light of these figures I estimate the probability of BTTS at 78% (No BTTS 22%) and recommend the Yes selection.

Based on xG I expect Eibar to score around 1.71 goals (attacking xG 1.96 vs average xG conceded by Córdoba 1.46) and Córdoba about 1.35 goals (attacking xG 1.56 vs average xG conceded by Eibar 1.13), totaling ~3.06 goals. Seasonal indicators confirm a high-scoring profile: Over 1.5 occurs for Eibar in 75% of matches and for Córdoba in 85%, while Over 2.5 occurs in 55% and 70% respectively; the league average is 2.65 goals per game, so 3.06 is clearly above that benchmark. In the last 5 matches both teams have averaged 1.8 goals each (Eibar 1.8, Córdoba 1.8), and Over 2.5 appeared in 80% of their last five fixtures, which increases the likelihood of at least three goals. Additionally, BTTS seasonally is 60% for Eibar and 75% for Córdoba; Eibar averages 18 shots (5.55 on target) vs Córdoba 13.65 (5.2 on target), with conversion rates of 8% vs 11%, which together favors goals from both sides. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (projected ~88%), while Over 2.5 also has solid support (~70%), and Over 3.5 is less likely (~36%).

I forecast Eibar leading at half-time with Córdoba winning after the break (HT/FT 1/2): Eibar led at the break in 60% of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.0 first-half goals versus Córdoba’s 0.2. Eibar also produces higher xG (1.96 vs 1.56) and more shots (18.0 vs 13.65), which explains their advantage in the first half. At the same time Córdoba is strong after the break – in their last 5 matches they averaged 1.6 goals post-break and won the second half in 100% of cases, while Eibar averaged 0.8 second-half goals and won 40% of second halves. Additionally both teams frequently score (both teams scored in 60% of Eibar’s matches and 75% of Córdoba’s), so I assigned a 20% weight to 1/2 as the primary pick, 14% to 1/1 and 15% to 2/2 as main alternatives, reflecting Eibar’s first-half edge and Córdoba’s post-break strength.