Segesta Sisak vs Dugopolje: match statistics

Segesta Sisak have a clearly superior recent scoring record, netting 21 goals in their last five matches compared to Dugopolje’s 5. The hosts are unbeaten at home, winning 50% of their matches and conceding just 0.5 goals per game on average, while their average xG stands at 1.45 against 1.38 xG allowed to opponents. Dugopolje are unbeaten throughout the season and won their only away match so far, but on the road they allow opponents 1.71 xG and concede an average of 1 goal per game. The visitors are efficient, scoring 2 goals per away match and failing to score in none of their games, yet they create only 1.01 xG from just 8 shots. Segesta’s superior recent form and more solid home defensive record give the hosts a slight edge, although Dugopolje’s high draw rate increases the likelihood of the points being shared.

A strong argument for BTTS - Yes is the complete 100% record of Dugopolje matches featuring goals from both sides this season: the team has kept no clean sheets, but has also never ended a match without scoring. Segesta Sisak has recorded BTTS in 67% of its league matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and conceding 1.0, which points to fairly regular conditions for a Goal/Goal outcome. The hosts should particularly benefit from the opposition’s defensive weaknesses, with a high average xG against of 1.71, while their own xG stands at 1.08. Dugopolje averages 3.0 shots on target per match and scores 2.0 goals, so despite Segesta’s solid defensive xG of 0.99, there are credible grounds for them to find the net. Segesta’s last five matches have produced just 20% BTTS, but Dugopolje’s stronger season data and their complete absence of clean sheets point more convincingly towards a scenario in which both teams score.

The match profile points to at least two goals: Over 1.5 goals landed in 67% of Segesta’s matches and in all of Dugopolje’s games so far. The hosts are in very strong attacking form, averaging 4.2 goals over their last 5 matches, with 1.42 xG per game. Dugopolje averaged 2.0 goals in their league fixtures, while also failing to keep a single clean sheet and allowing opponents an average of 1.71 xG. The estimated 2.70 goals is above the league average of 2.44, which is why Over 1.5 has the highest probability and a clearer edge than the more demanding lines.

Segesta Sisak are showing significantly stronger current attacking form: they have averaged 4.2 goals over their last five matches, compared with just 1.0 for Dugopolje. The hosts tend to start matches well, averaging 1.6 goals scored before half-time and conceding only 0.2 during this period, giving them a positive first-half goal difference of 7. Sisak’s advantage should increase after the interval, as they have averaged 2.6 goals in the second halves of their last five appearances, while Dugopolje have managed just 0.2 and have not won any of those periods. Although the visitors have a perfect winning record in a very small seasonal sample, their average draw rate of 60% across the last five matches, together with 1.4 goals conceded per game, supports the scenario of the hosts taking the lead at the break and maintaining their advantage to secure the win: 1/1.