Sepahan vs Tractor Sazi: match statistics

Sepahan have a slightly better record in their last five matches: 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat, while Tractor Sazi have lost twice. The hosts have scored 6 goals during this period, 2 more than their opponents, while conceding only 4 compared with the 6 goals conceded by the visitors. Sepahan have averaged 0.8 goals conceded per match in this run, suggesting a more stable defensive structure than Tractor, who have allowed 1.2 goals per game. The difference in average points from the five matches is marginal, 1.6 to 1.4, so a draw remains a realistic outcome; however, the hosts’ superior goal difference and home advantage ultimately support a Sepahan victory.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as both teams scored in only 40% of Sepahan’s last 5 matches and just 20% of Tractor Sazi’s. Tractor Sazi averaged only 0.8 goals per match during this period, while Sepahan conceded 0.8 goals per match, clearly increasing the risk of the visitors failing to score. Sepahan are the more likely team to find the net, with an xG of 1.38, while Tractor Sazi allowed opponents an xG of 1.94. At the same time, Tractor Sazi recorded an xG of 1.28, almost identical to the 1.27 xG conceded by Sepahan, so a goal from the visitors remains a realistic possibility but is not the dominant scenario. The goal difference across the five matches—6:4 for Sepahan and 4:6 for Tractor Sazi—further suggests a game in which a 1:0 or 2:0 result is slightly more likely than goals from both sides. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

The available season data is incomplete, so the greatest weight is placed on results and metrics from the last 5 matches. During this period, Sepahan averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Tractor Sazi scored 0.8 goals and conceded 1.2 per match. The hosts have greater attacking potential, with an average xG of 1.38, while their opponents allowed as much as 1.94 xG; the forecast is lower for the visitors, whose xG stands at 1.28 compared with the 1.27 xG allowed by Sepahan. Only 2 of Sepahan’s last 5 matches and 1 of Tractor Sazi’s last 5 matches went over the 2.5-goal line, limiting the case for an open, high-scoring game. The projected 2.60 goals gives a clear edge to the Under 3.5 goals bet, as this selection only loses if at least 4 goals are scored.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time: Sepahan were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, while Tractor Sazi did so in as many as 80%. The visitors scored just 0.2 goals per match before half-time and failed to score in that period in four of their last five appearances, whereas Sepahan averaged 0.8 goals. After the break, the hosts should gain the upper hand, as Tractor Sazi conceded an average of 1.2 goals in this phase of the match, compared with just 0.4 goals conceded by Sepahan. The overall recent record also supports this: Sepahan averaged 1.2 goals and lost only 20% of their matches, while Tractor Sazi scored 0.8 goals and lost 40% of their games.