Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa: match statistics

Septemvri Sofia have a clear home advantage: they average 0.67 goals at home, while Botev Vratsa also score just 0.67 away from home and concede as many as 3.00 goals per match. The visitors have lost all of their away games so far, with a -7 goal difference on the road, and have not kept a single clean sheet. The hosts create more chances, averaging 9.33 shots and 3.67 shots on target per game, compared with 8.33 and 2.00 for Botev, while their xG stands at 1.29 versus 1.25 for their opponents. Recent form also favors Septemvri, who have collected 7 points from their last five matches, while Botev have managed just 3 and conceded 12 goals during that period. However, the hosts’ low finishing efficiency and average of 1.33 goals conceded at home leave a realistic possibility of a closely contested match.

The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, as Septemvri Sofia scores only 0.67 goals per match on average and just 0.60 over their last five fixtures. Botev Vratsa also averages 0.67 goals and has scored only 3 times in their last five matches, despite the hosts conceding 1.40 goals per game during this period. BTTS in the last five appearances stood at just 20% for Septemvri and 40% for Botev, clearly below the league average of 56%. The hosts kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches, while the visitors have failed to do so even once, which supports a Septemvri goal; however, their xG of 0.95 and just 2.67 shots on target per match limit confidence in this scenario. Therefore, the most likely outcome remains one in which at least one team fails to score.

Septemvri and Botev Vratsa score just 0.67 goals per game in the league, while over their last five matches, both teams have averaged only 0.60 goals scored. The hosts should nevertheless create more chances than usual, as their average xG stands at 0.97, whereas Botev concede chances worth as much as 1.84 xG and allow an average of 3.00 goals per game. On the other hand, Septemvri restrict opponents to just 0.97 xG, limiting the visitors’ projection despite their xG of 1.25. The total goal projection of 2.32, combined with the fact that the hosts have not played a single match featuring at least four goals, points clearly towards Under 3.5 goals.

Septemvri have the stronger case for the first half: they have yet to concede before the break at home, while Botev Vratsa were trailing at half-time in all three of their away matches, conceding an average of 1.67 goals during that period. The hosts led at the break in 33% of their home games, whereas the visitors have not scored a single first-half goal. After the final whistle, the hosts’ advantage remains significant, as Septemvri average 1.33 points per home match, while Botev have lost every away game so far, conceding as many as 3.0 goals on average. Although Septemvri’s last five appearances produced 0 goals scored before half-time, the visitors’ defensive weakness and their xG against figure of 1.84 primarily support a scenario in which the hosts lead at the break and go on to win, i.e. the HT/FT selection 1/1.