Shaanxi Union vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring: match statistics

Shaanxi Union are significantly more effective at home: they win 67% of their home matches, score an average of 1.78 goals and concede just 0.56 per game. The hosts also create more high-quality chances, averaging 1.76 xG from 15.56 shots and 5.11 shots on target, while Heilongjiang average 1.07 xG, 8.6 shots and 3.5 shots on target away from home. The defensive gap is crucial, as the visitors concede as many as 2.10 goals per away match, keep a clean sheet in only 10% of their games and allow opponents 1.66 xG. Heilongjiang can score away from home, averaging 1.60 goals, but they have lost 3 of their last five matches and conceded 13 goals, further strengthening the case for the hosts. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as the visitors have drawn 60% of their away matches; however, Shaanxi’s advantage in possession, averaging 60% compared with 49%, should translate into a home win.

Shaanxi Union have recorded BTTS in 91% of their matches this season, while Heilongjiang Lava Spring have done so in 80%, both clearly above the league average of 56%. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS every time, with the hosts averaging 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, compared with 1.6 scored and 2.6 conceded by the visitors. The hosts have failed to keep a single clean sheet this season, while the visitors have managed one in only 10% of their matches, significantly increasing the chances of both sides finding the net. Shaanxi produce an average xG of 1.59, while Heilongjiang’s defense allows opponents an xG of 1.66. At the same time, the visitors should benefit from the hosts’ defense, which concedes an average of 1.91 goals. The strongest signal therefore points to BTTS - Yes, as both teams score regularly and their defensive lines consistently allow opponents to find the net.

The profile of both teams clearly points toward goals: Shaanxi averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.91 conceded, while Heilongjiang scores 1.60 and allows opponents 2.10 goals. The hosts’ last five matches produced an average of 3.8 goals, whereas the visitors’ games yielded as many as 4.2 goals. The 1.5 line was covered in 91% of Shaanxi’s matches and 90% of Heilongjiang’s, with both teams scoring at least once in 91% and 90% of their respective appearances. Additionally, in each team’s last five matches, both sides scored in 100% of cases, reducing the risk of a very tight scoreline. Over 1.5 is therefore the strongest pick, although the high percentage of matches featuring at least three goals—100% for the hosts and 80% for the visitors recently—also supports the scenario of a more open game.

The strongest scenario is Heilongjiang Lava Spring leading at half-time, followed by a Shaanxi Union victory, as the visitors held a lead after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches, while the hosts were trailing at that stage in 60% of theirs. However, Shaanxi have clearly been the stronger side after the break recently: over their last five matches, they averaged 1.0 goals scored and conceded just 0.6, winning the second half in 60% of cases. Heilongjiang have been significantly weaker after the interval, losing 80% of their last five second halves, with averages of 0.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The hosts also create more chances over the course of the season, averaging 13.55 shots and 5.0 on target compared with the visitors’ 8.6 and 3.5, while their xG stands at 1.59 versus 1.07 for their opponents. Both defenses are prone to errors, with Shaanxi conceding an average of 1.91 goals per match and Heilongjiang 2.10, increasing the likelihood of a turnaround after an early lead for the visitors.