Shahrdari Noshahr vs Niroye Zamini: match statistics

Shahrdari Noshahr holds a clear advantage in chance creation: home xG is 1.44 versus Niroye Zamini’s 0.77 xG on the road, and the hosts average 9.78 shots (4.89 on target) per match compared to 4.88 (2.13 on target) for the visitors. Defensively the hosts also perform better — they concede 0.67 goals per game at their stadium and register 47% clean sheets at home, while Niroye Zamini concedes 1.07 goals away and has only 27% clean sheets; their away xG against is 1.67 versus 0.98 allowed by the hosts. Finishing is low for both sides: both average 0.67 goals in their home/away matches, and the share of goalless games is 53% for both teams, indicating few goals. In the last 5 matches Shahrdari has collected 0.6 points per game (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses) and scored 2 goals, while Niroye Zamini has 0.8 points per game (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) and scored 3 but conceded 6. Considering the home xG advantage, superior shot volume and quality, and better home defense, I forecast a Shahrdari victory.

Seasonal BTTS indicators favor 'No': Shahrdari has BTTS at 19% and Niroye 33%, versus a league average of 30%. Home team scores on average 0.88 and concedes 0.75 per match, records 50% clean sheets and 4.11 shots on target per game, while the away side averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.07 conceded, with 2.13 shots on target and only 27% clean sheets. In the last 5 matches the home team scored 2 goals (0.4 per match) and conceded 4 (0.8), the away team scored 3 (0.6) and conceded 6 (1.2); additionally Niroye has 0% BTTS in those five fixtures. Although xG indicates a home advantage (home xG 1.21 vs away 0.77) and the visitors’ defense allows 1.67 xG per match, the visitors’ low attacking efficiency (10% conversion) and the high incidence of clean sheets (home 50%, league 93%) reduce the probability that both teams will score. Based on these figures I assign 75% to BTTS - No and 25% to BTTS - Yes as the most likely outcome.

Home xG averages 1.21 while away xG conceded is 1.67 — the mean gives a home goals projection ≈1.44; similarly for away (xG_for 0.77 and xG_against 1.09) projection ≈0.93, total ≈2.37 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.37 indicates probability for Over 1.5 ≈69% (P(0 or 1) ≈31%), Over 2.5 ≈42% and Over 3.5 ≈22%. Hosts average 8.67 shots and 4.11 shots on target per match versus 4.88 and 2.13 for visitors, and conversion 14% vs 10% suggests higher home efficiency in clear chances. Season-long metrics point to fewer high-scoring games (Over 2.5: home 25%, away 27%; BTTS 19% and 33%), but recent home xG 1.31 and away xG conceded in last 5 matches 1.71 confirm increased risk of at least two goals. As a result the strongest signal from the data is a bet on Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side: over) with an estimated probability around 69%.

First-half statistics strongly favor a draw: home teams were level at the break in 60% of matches, away teams in 57%, yielding an average of about 59% draws at half-time; home sides led at the break in 20% of games, away teams in 14%. Over full matches homes won 31% of fixtures versus 13% for visitors, and hosts also enjoy an advantage in xG (1.21 vs 0.77) and shots on target (4.11 vs 2.13), indicating higher attacking quality. Hosts score on average 0.47 goals after the break compared to 0.29 for guests, so a draw at half-time has a strong chance of turning into a home lead in the second half. Additionally, hosts keep a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of cases versus 64% for away teams, which explains the frequent goalless or low-scoring first halves. For these reasons the most probable scenario is X/1 (draw at Half-Time, home win Full-Time); in my assessment X/1 has the highest probability (26%), followed by X/X (21%) and 1/1 (15%).