Shenavarsazi Qeshm vs Havadar: match statistics

Havadar sit higher in the table (6th vs 14th) and in the last 5 matches has 3 wins and 2 draws (avg. 2.2 pts per match), while Shenavarsazi has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (1.6 pts). Defensively the visitors have a clear advantage: Havadar conceded 19 goals this season versus 36 for the hosts, and away they concede only 0.5 goals on average with 69% clean sheets versus Shenavarsazi’s 0.94 goals conceded at home. The hosts, however, create more chances — home xG 1.38, 8 shots and 2.67 on target per match — while Havadar away has xG 0.6, 3.6 shots and 1.4 on target, but Shenavarsazi scores only 0.88 goals at home (below their xG), indicating poor finishing. Considering Havadar’s high 69% clean sheets and that the visitors fail to score in 44% of away matches, while the hosts underperform their chance creation, the most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw (most likely 0:0 or 1:1).

Season signals point to a low probability of BTTS: Shenavarsazi has a season BTTS of 35%, Havadar 19%, and the league BTTS level is 30%, yielding a season average of about 27%. Consistently high clean sheet rates — 53% for hosts, 69% for guests and as much as 92% at the league level — indicate that in most matches at least one team keeps a clean sheet. Offensively Shenavarsazi holds the edge: attacking xG 1.06 vs 0.60 for Havadar, an average of 3.82 shots on target vs 1.40 and season average goals 1.12 vs 0.81, meaning the realistic scoring chances favor the home side. There is a short-term uptick in offensive output — in the last 5 matches BTTS was 80% for hosts and 60% for guests, and goals in the last 5 are 8 (home) and 10 (away) — but this sample is smaller than the season data. Considering the dominant weight of seasonal and league indicators (low season BTTS ~27% and the high clean sheet rate 92%), I assign BTTS a 36% probability and No BTTS 64%, and recommend the tip 'no' (No Goal / clean sheet expected).

Seasonal goals averages are 1.12 for Shenavarsazi and 0.81 for Havadar; xG for the home side is 1.06, for the away side 0.60, and xG against is 0.79 (home) and 0.77 (away), which when averaged yields expected 0.92 goals for the home team and 0.69 for the away team (total 1.61). A Poisson model on a total of 1.61 forecasts roughly a 48% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and only about a 22% probability of 3+ goals (Over 2.5), hence a strong signal for Under 2.5 (~78%). Seasonal stats confirm a low incidence of high-scoring matches: home sides have Over 2.5 in 24% of games, away sides in 13%, versus a league average of 22% Over 2.5. Additionally clean sheets are frequent — home teams in 53% of matches, away teams in 69% — and both teams produce few shots on target (3.82 vs 1.4), which limits goal output. Although both scored more in their last 5 matches (8 and 10 goals), the seasonal figures and expected goals (0.92–0.69, total 1.61) favor Under 2.5 as the strongest play.

The strongest signal is the prevalence of draws and a low goal count: the home side drew in 59% of the season’s matches, the away side in 44%, and the share of matches in which both teams scored is only 35% (home) and 19% (away). A draw at Half-Time is highly likely — the home team led at the break in 47% of matches, but a lead at the break did not translate to an overall advantage: the Half-Time draw occurred for homes in 41% and for aways in 67%, with average goals by Half-Time of 1.06 (home) vs 0.6 (away). Although the home xG is 1.06 versus 0.6 for the visitors and the season average goals are 1.12 vs 0.81, both teams have high clean sheet rates (53% for home and 69% for away), which suppresses goal totals. Given these figures, the most consistent scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a draw at Full-Time (X/X), so this HT/FT market outcome is assigned the highest probability.