Shenavarsazi Qeshm vs Mes Shahr-e Babak: match statistics

Mes Shahr-e Babak is the clear favorite in this fixture: they sit 2nd with 17 wins this season versus Shenavarsazi Qeshm’s 7 wins and 14th position. The gap in efficiency and defense is significant — Mes have scored 35 goals this season compared to the hosts’ 18; the visitors have conceded 13 goals, the hosts 32. In their last five matches Mes scored 10 goals and average 2.0 points per game, while Shenavarsazi scored 7 goals and average 1.4 points per game, indicating better form for the visitors. Away, Mes register on average 3.67 shots on target and concede 0.47 goals per game, whereas the hosts at home average 2.67 shots on target and concede 0.8 goals; the hosts have 53% clean sheets at home, but the visitors have 60% clean sheets on the road. Considering the advantage in goals (35 vs 18), superior defense (13 vs 32) and higher efficiency over the last 5 games, I expect an away win — I assign them a 65% probability, draw 20% and the hosts 15%.

Seasonal BTTS rates are low: Shenavarsazi 31% and Mes 20%, versus a league average BTTS 30%, indicating a below-average probability of both teams scoring. Both sides record a high number of clean sheets: Shenavarsazi 63%, Mes 60%, and clean sheets occur in 93% of league matches, which strongly favors the 'No Goal' scenario. The last 5 matches show divergence — Shenavarsazi had BTTS in 60% of games and averaged 1.4 goals scored and conceded in L5, while Mes had BTTS 0%, averaged 2.0 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded (total 1 goal in five matches), meaning Mes has been defensively stable recently. From a chance-quality perspective seasonal xG_for is 1.24 for Shenavarsazi and 1.12 for Mes, but in the last 5 matches Mes generated xG_for 1.41 versus 0.47 for Shenavarsazi, showing Mes currently has the edge in chance creation while also keeping the opponent off the scoresheet. Considering the low seasonal BTTS (31%/20%), high clean sheet rates (63%/60% and 93% league-wide) and recent form (average goals conceded 1.4 vs 0.2 in the last 5), I assign 80% to 'No' and 20% to 'BTTS - Yes' and recommend a 'No Goal' bet.

The xG-based model shows: Shenavarsazi Qeshm has xG 1.24 while their opponent concedes 1.17 xG; Mes Shahr-e Babak has xG 1.12 while the hosts allow 0.91 xG. Averaging these yields an estimate of ~1.21 goals for the home side and ~1.02 for the away side, totaling ~2.23 goals. Seasonal indicators point to a low-scoring environment: Over 2.5 occurs in only 19% of the home team’s matches and 13% of the away team’s matches (avg 16%), clean sheets appear in 63% and 60% of games; BTTS is just 31%/20%. A Poisson model with lambda ≈2.23 gives a 38% probability for Over 2.5, but I weight season stats more heavily (70% season / 30% xG), leading to a final Over 2.5 ≈23%. As a result, the strongest signal is Under 2.5 (77% chance), while Over 1.5 is moderately likely (~46%) given the cumulative xG ~2.23 and the fact that 44% of the home team’s matches finish above 1.5 goals.

The home side led at the break in 9 matches (56%), while the visitors led at the break in 5 matches (33%), indicating Shenavarsazi Qeshm’s advantage already at Half-Time. Shenavarsazi average 0.63 goals by Half-Time and concede only 0.06, whereas the visitors average 0.40 scored and 0.00 conceded at Half-Time, so the hosts score before the break more often and rarely lose the lead. Over the full match the hosts average 1.24 xG versus 1.12 xG for the visitors, and the hosts’ defense allows 0.91 xG versus 1.17 xG for the away side; the hosts win 69% of matches and average 2.31 points per game versus 40% and 1.6 points for the visitors, so they are favored to see the result through. After the break the hosts score on average 0.50 goals and concede 0.31, which means that when leading at the break they have a positive second-half balance and a strong chance to maintain the victory — therefore I rate the 1/1 scenario highest (45%). Alternatives are Half-Time draw and home win (X/1 17%) or draw/draw (X/X 13%), since in 38% of matches the hosts are level at Half-Time and they keep 63% clean sheets over the season, which raises the probability of a low final score.