Shenavarsazi Qeshm vs Niroye Zamini: match statistics

I back the home win (1) due to a clear superiority in chance creation and game control: Shenavarsazi Qeshm averages 8 shots and 2.67 shots on target at home with 56% possession, while Niroye Zamini away averages 4.57 shots and 1.86 shots on target with 47% possession. The hosts generate an average xG of 1.38 per home match with 0.64 goals scored, whereas the visitors have xG 0.73 with 0.64 goals, meaning the hosts create 0.65 more xG. Defensively the advantage is also with the hosts — they concede 0.73 goals per home match and record 55% clean sheets, while the visitors concede 1.27 goals away and have only 18% clean sheets, making it harder for opponents to score. In form over the last 5 matches the hosts have earned 1.4 points per match (record 2-1-2), and the visitors 1.0 point (record 1-2-2); additionally the hosts less frequently finish matches without scoring — shutout rate of 36% versus 45% for the visitors. Considering the edge in xG, shots, possession and clean sheets, I estimate the probability of a home win at 62%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 15%.

I assess the probability of Both Teams To Score as low and recommend BTTS = 'No'. Shenavarsazi as the home side averages 1.17 goals per match and concedes only 0.58, registering 50% clean sheets this season, which strongly favors a clean sheet expected for them. Niroye Zamini have a weak offense: 0.64 goals per match, xG 0.73, on average 1.86 SOT and 4.57 total shots, so their ability to score is limited. Seasonal BTTS rates are 25% for the home team and 45% for the away team with the league level at 32%, yet the home advantage in chance creation (xG 1.37 and 5.14 SOT vs 0.73 xG and 1.86 SOT for the visitors) and the high share of home clean sheets (50% vs 18%) argue for a No Goal/No BTTS scenario. Based on this I estimate BTTS probabilities at 25% for 'Yes' and 75% for 'No'.

The xG-based model projects expected goals: home 1.49, away 0.91, totaling 2.40 goals. This 2.40 is 0.89 above the league average of 1.51, and a Poisson model estimates the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) at ~69%. The home side generates significantly more chances: 5.14 shots on target and xG 1.37 versus 1.86 shots on target and xG 0.73 for the visitors, while Niroye Zamini concedes on average 1.60 xG per match — this supports Shenavarsazi Qeshm's scoring potential. Historically Over 1.5 occurred in 50% of home matches and 45% of away matches, whereas Over 2.5 only in 25% and 27% of matches respectively, confirming a moderate probability for Over 2.5 (~43%) and a low probability for Over 3.5 (~22%). Considering the higher home xG and shot volume and the estimated 2.40 goals in the match, I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Half-time statistics strongly point to a draw: the home side led at the break in 27% of matches, while the half-time score is level in 64% of their games; additionally the hosts concede only 0.09 goals on average before the break and keep 91% clean sheets at HT, suggesting many goalless or drawn first halves. Over 90 minutes the home team is the clear favorite — they win 42% of matches versus just 9% for visitors and score 1.17 goals per match on average, while the away side averages 0.64 goals. The quality gap is confirmed by xG: home xG is 1.37 versus away xG 0.73, and visitors concede 1.27 goals per game; the hosts also register 5.14 shots on target per match compared to 1.86 for the away team, which increases the likelihood of goals after the break. Given that HT draws (64%) often resolve after the interval in favor of the home side and that hosts, when leading at half-time, hold the lead in about 73% of cases, the most probable scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win after 90 minutes (X/1).