Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: match statistics

I predict an away win (2): Chongqing Tongliang Long sit 2nd in the table versus Shenyang Urban in 10th and have conceded 16 goals this season compared to the hosts' 28. Away, Chongqing concede on average 1.00 goal and keep a 43% clean sheet rate, while Shenyang at home concede 1.63 goals and have only a 13% clean sheet rate, giving the visitors a clear defensive edge. The hosts, however, create more chances — at home they average 10.88 shots per match (3.63 on target), score 1.5 goals with an xG of 1.2 and have netted 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per game). The visitors attempt fewer shots (6.14) but have a higher conversion rate of 16% and have conceded only 3 goals in their last 5 matches (0.6 per game), averaging 2.0 points per match; therefore the higher probability favors Chongqing's victory, although I expect an open game with goals at both ends.

I back BTTS - Yes with a probability estimate of 65% vs 35% for No. Shenyang Urban posts a seasonal BTTS rate of 56% and 60% in the last 5 matches, averaging 2.2 goals in those five fixtures and generating xG 1.53 in the last 5 (seasonal xG_for 1.11), while averaging 9.67 shots and 3.67 shots on target per game. Chongqing Tongliang Long have weaker offensive metrics: seasonal xG_for 0.74 (last 5: 0.8), averaging 6.14 shots and 2.86 on target, with a seasonal BTTS share of 43% and only 20% in the last 5. Still, opponents create an average of 1.55 xG per game against Chongqing, Shenyang concedes 1.8 goals on average in the last 5, while Chongqing scores 1.2 in that period, which gives a realistic chance for both teams to find the net. Considering the high league BTTS level of 63% and Shenyang’s edge in shots and xG (9.67 shots and xG 1.53 in the last 5), the Both Teams To Score scenario looks more likely, although Chongqing’s low recent BTTS figure (20%) limits the probability to a moderate level.

Based on xG and the opponent’s defense I estimate expected goals: home attack xG 1.11 and away defense xG 1.55 yield on average 1.33 goals for Shenyang Urban; Chongqing attack xG 0.74 and home defense xG 1.01 yield 0.88 goals for the visitors, totaling 2.21 goals. These values align with season averages: hosts score 1.44 goals per season (last 5 matches 2.2), visitors 1.00 goals per season (last 5 matches 1.2). Hosts average 9.67 shots and 3.67 on target per match versus the visitors’ 6.14 and 2.86, with conversion rates 15% vs 16%; seasonally Over 1.5 occurred in 67% of home matches and 43% of away matches, and BTTS 56% vs 43%, suggesting a realistic chance of at least 2 goals. Based on the expected 2.21 goals and clear advantages in chance creation I recommend Over 1.5 as the best line (confidence 80% vs 20%). The 2.5 threshold is less certain — season Over 2.5 are 33%/43% and expected 2.21 < 2.5, so Under 2.5 (58%) is preferred, while Over 3.5 is rated low (around 24%) consistent with seasonal 22%/29%.

I anticipate the most likely HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1) with probability around 33%. Both teams frequently draw at the break: Shenyang Urban drew at half-time in 67% of home matches and Chongqing in 57% of away matches, giving an average HT draw likelihood of about 62%. The home side has a clear advantage in the second half — on average 1.11 goals scored after the break versus 0.43 for the visitors; a Poisson model on these rates yields roughly a 52.7% chance that Shenyang will score more in the second half, which translates to ~33% overall probability for X/1. Additionally, Shenyang shows higher xG (1.11 vs 0.74), more shots (9.67 vs 6.14) and more points gained after the break (16 vs 8), reinforcing the signal for a home comeback in the second half. Meanwhile, a home lead at half-time is rare (11% of their home matches) and an away lead at half-time occurs more often (29%), hence smaller shares for 1/1 (11%) and 2/2 (12%) in the distribution.