Shenyang Urban vs Sichuan Jiuniu: match statistics

Shenyang Urban win 55% of their home matches, while Sichuan Jiuniu win just 9% of their away games and lose as many as 82% of them. The hosts average 1.64 goals at home, whereas the visitors score only 0.73 away from home, with Sichuan failing to score in 55% of such fixtures. The visitors’ defense allows opponents an average of 2.36 goals and an xG of 1.86, clearly favouring the hosts despite their own defensive problems. Shenyang are also in better current form: they have scored 7 goals and collected an average of 1.4 points per game in their last five matches, compared with Sichuan’s 6 goals and 0.8 points. Home advantage, greater attacking efficiency and the visitors’ extremely poor away record point to a Shenyang Urban win.

Shenyang Urban should score, as they average 2.00 goals at home, while Sichuan Jiuniu concede as many as 2.36 goals per away match and have not kept a single clean sheet. However, the key obstacle to BTTS - Yes is the visitors’ attack: they score just 0.73 goals away from home, and failed to score in 55% of their league matches. The hosts kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games, while their defense has conceded an average of just 1.0 goal across their last five appearances. Sichuan Jiuniu have recently improved their output to 1.2 goals per match, but their xG is only 1.10, whereas Shenyang Urban take 14.18 shots at home and hold a clear attacking advantage. Both teams’ seasonal BTTS rates—55% for the hosts and 45% for the visitors—are below the league average of 63%, making the outcome in which at least one team fails to score more likely. In other words, BTTS - No is the more probable scenario; this does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw, only that at least one team is expected to fail to score.

The home side scores an average of 2.00 goals per match, while Sichuan Jiuniu concede as many as 2.36, creating a highly favorable matchup for Shenyang Urban’s attack. The visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet in any match this season, while the hosts have scored at least once in 91% of their games. The Over 1.5 goals line has landed in 73% of Shenyang Urban’s matches and 82% of Sichuan Jiuniu’s, clearly more often than the higher thresholds. Even with a more cautious assessment of current form, the two teams have averaged a combined 2.8 goals per match over their last five games, while the visitors conceded 11 goals during that period. The projected total of 2.60 goals gives the strongest betting edge to Over 1.5 goals, whereas the Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 lines are considerably more evenly balanced.

Shenyang Urban have a clear quality advantage: they score an average of 2.00 goals per match, compared with just 0.73 for Sichuan Jiuniu, while the visitors concede as many as 2.36 goals per game and have lost 82% of their matches. The hosts have more often taken the lead at the break, doing so in 36% of matches compared with just 9% for their opponents, while Sichuan have been behind at half-time in 45% of their games. The advantage is also evident in chance creation: Shenyang’s xG stands at 1.50 compared with 1.07 for the visitors, and the hosts average 4.73 shots on target against 3.45. However, the last five matches suggest allowing for a more cautious start, as Shenyang averaged just 0.40 goals before half-time. Therefore, the draw/hosts scenario in the HT/FT market remains a significant alternative. Nevertheless, Sichuan’s weak defense, which conceded an average of 2.20 goals across their last five matches, most strongly supports the Shenyang lead at the break and their victory by the final whistle.