Shire Endaselassie vs Mebrat Hayl: match statistics

Mebrat Hayl is the favorite in this matchup: they sit 6th in the table versus Shire Endaselassie’s 19th place and have 10 wins this season compared to the hosts’ 6. The visitors create more chances — averaging 7.64 shots per match and 2.21 on target versus the hosts’ 5.5 and 2.14 — and have a higher xG: 1.21 versus 0.95, about 0.26 xG more per game. In the last 5 matches Mebrat recorded 1 win and averages 1.0 point per match, while Shire has no wins and averages 0.6 points; both teams have scored few goals in the last 5 (3 vs 2) and have a 50% probability of failing to score. Defensively the differences are marginal — average goals conceded are 0.71 for Shire at home versus 0.79 for Mebrat away — but the visitors’ advantage in possession (54% vs 46%) and chance creation leans toward a narrow away win.

Seasonal metrics indicate a low probability of BTTS - Yes: Shire has BTTS 27% and Mebrat 29%, versus a league level of 42%. Shire keeps a clean sheet in 60% of matches and Mebrat in 50%, increasing the likelihood of at least one team not scoring. Both sides have low scoring averages — 0.73 (Shire) and 0.79 (Mebrat) for the season and only 0.4 and 0.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with an average of 0.8 conceded each. Offensive xG stands at 1.03 vs 1.21 and xG against at 1.05 vs 1.24, while low shot volumes of 6.71 and 7.64 suggest few clear chances; therefore the stronger signal is No Goal (70% vs 30%).

Seasonal goal averages are low: Shire Endaselassie scores 0.73 goals/match, Mebrat Hayl 0.79, and the league average is 1.79 goals per match. xG for both teams is 1.03 (Shire) and 1.21 (Mebrat), but actual goals lag by about 0.30 and 0.42 (0.73 vs 1.03; 0.79 vs 1.21), indicating poor finishing. Seasonal high-scoring stats are low: Over 2.5 occurs in only 20% of home matches and 21% of away matches, Over 3.5 in 7%/7%, while clean sheet rates are 60%/50% and BTTS 27%/29%. Averaging seasonal goals, xG and opponent defensive factors, I project 0.93 goals for the home side and 0.96 for the away (total 1.89), which is a strong signal for the under. The best market to play is Under 2.5 — the implied probability from seasonal 80%/79% suggests about 79% for Under 2.5, while Over 2.5 has only around a 21% chance.

Hosts finished the first half level in 80% of home matches, while visitors did so in 57% of away fixtures; the first-half goals average is only 0.13 for hosts versus 0.50 for visitors. After the break hosts are more proactive — they score an average of 0.60 goals and accumulated 21 points in second halves, whereas visitors have 0.29 goals and 16 points, giving hosts the advantage in the second half. Visitors present higher attacking xG of 1.21 compared to hosts’ 1.03, but they also concede more expected goals against (1.24 vs 1.05) and on average concede 0.57 goals after the break, making them vulnerable to late concessions. Consequently the strongest signal from the data is a half-time draw followed by a home win (HT/FT X/1), so I assign the highest probability to that scenario.