Sholing vs Tiverton Town: match statistics

I predict a home win; Sholing averages 2.44 goals per home match and concedes 1.5, while Tiverton scores only 1.22 away and concedes 3.0. The hosts create more chances: 13.33 shots and 6.33 on target per home game versus Tiverton’s 9.75 shots and 3 on target, with shot conversion 20% vs 13%. xG confirms Sholing’s dominance — average home xG 1.51 with xG against 0.79, whereas Tiverton’s away xG is 1.11 and xG against 1.6, indicating the visitors allow significantly better chances to opponents. In the last 5 matches Sholing are 2-2-1 (7 goals for, 4 against, 1.6 points per game), while Tiverton are 1-0-4 (3-13, 0.6 points per game), showing a drop in the visitors’ form. Additionally, Tiverton have a 78% loss rate away and fail to score in 39% of matches, whereas Sholing lose only 17% at home and are goalless in 6% of cases, so home advantage and superior efficiency favor the hosts.

I project BTTS - Yes as the more likely outcome (65% vs 35%), primarily due to a high league-level occurrence of both teams scoring at 60% and Tiverton’s seasonal BTTS rate at 61%. Tiverton is clearly prone to conceding — averaging 3.0 goals conceded per match this season (88 goals on the season) and 13 goals conceded in the last 5 matches (2.6 per match), which markedly increases the likelihood they will allow a goal. Sholing have scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches (1.4 per match) and have a home xG of 0.9 versus the xG Tiverton typically concedes (1.6), so from an xG and form perspective the hosts have realistic scoring opportunities. Counterarguments are material: Sholing’s seasonal BTTS rate is only 33% and their season average goals scored is 0.83, while Tiverton recorded just 20% BTTS in their last 5 matches, which lowers confidence in a Yes bet. Nevertheless, given the dominant signal of Tiverton’s defensive issues (3.0 seasonally and 2.6 in the last 5) and the high league BTTS rate of 60%, I give the Yes scenario the edge and rate it at 65%.

Based on xG I calculate 1.25 goals for Sholing (xG_for_home 0.90 vs xG_against_away 1.60 → (0.90+1.60)/2 = 1.25) and 1.17 for Tiverton (xG_for_away 1.11 and xG_against_home 1.22 → 1.17), total 2.42. A Poisson model with λ=2.42 yields ~69.6% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~43.6% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~22.6% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal data reinforce the over signal: Sholing at home have 78% of matches over 1.5, Tiverton away 94%, while Tiverton have 89% of matches over 2.5 and have conceded 88 goals this season (Sholing scored 65); in the last 5 matches Sholing scored 7 goals (1.4 avg), and Tiverton conceded 13 (2.6 avg). Combining the model and historical shares, I propose probabilities: Over1.5 78% (Under 22%), Over2.5 56% (Under 44%) and Over3.5 32% (Under 68%). The best and strongest line to play is Over 1.5, as both the model (≈69.6%) and strong historical indicators (78%/94%) point to a high likelihood of at least 2 goals.

In the first half I project a draw: the hosts have been level at the break in 33% of home matches, and in their last five fixtures the half-time draw occurred in 60% of cases. After the break I assess a Sholing advantage — over the last five matches the home side averaged 1.8 points in second halves compared to just 0.8 points for Tiverton, and Sholing won 40% of those five games versus 20% for Tiverton. The visitors have clear defensive issues on the road: Tiverton concede an average of 3.0 goals per away match and have only an 11% win rate, while the hosts register 0.72 points per home game. Although Tiverton generate more xG (1.11 vs 0.9), they also allow more xG against (1.6 vs 1.22), which favors goals after the break and potential turnarounds. Consequently the strongest scenario appears to be a half-time draw and a Sholing win after 90 minutes (X/1).