Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Czarni Połaniec: match statistics

I back the away win ('2') because Czarni Połaniec arrive in markedly better form: 5 wins in their last 5 matches, 11 goals scored and only 3 conceded, translating to an average of 3 points per game, whereas Siarka has 1 win, 4 goals scored and 7 conceded in the same period, averaging 1 point per game. Siarka’s home-season metrics are strong — 2.15 goals per game, 5.86 shots on target, a +12 home goal difference and xG for 1.57 — but recent form indicates a drop in efficiency (only 4 goals in 5 matches) and 7 goals conceded. Czarni away average 1.54 goals with 3.57 shots on target and xG for 1.17, and their away defense concedes 1.54 goals on average; their current finishing (11 goals in 5 matches) is therefore a significant asset. Comparing quality of chances, Siarka at home have xG for 1.57 versus Czarni’s away xG against 1.42, but the visitors still score 1.54 goals away on average — higher than Siarka’s average home goals conceded of 1.23 — which means the visitors’ form offsets the hosts’ advantage. Consequently I assign Czarni a 45% probability to win, Siarka 30% and a 25% chance of a draw.

Season-long metrics favor BTTS: Siarka has BTTS in 62% of matches, Czarni in 54%, and the league average is 56%, indicating a propensity for both teams to score. Siarka averages 2.0 goals per game, has an xG of 1.60 and records 6.4 shots on target (12.8 total shots), while Czarni concede an xG of 1.42 and allow 1.54 goals per game, so the home side should create chances. There is short-term risk: in the last 5 matches Siarka averaged only 0.8 goals and had BTTS in 40% of those games, whereas Czarni averaged 2.2 goals in their last 5 and also had 40% BTTS, winning all 5 matches (11 scored, 3 conceded). Additionally, the share of matches without scoring is 8% for Siarka versus 31% for Czarni, meaning historically Czarni fail to score more often, but Czarni’s current form contradicts that. Considering the season-long 62% and 54%, the home xG advantage (1.6 vs 1.17) and 6.4 vs 3.57 shots on target, I assess BTTS at 65% vs 35% and recommend a Bet on BTTS - Yes.

The xG model indicates a total expected goals figure of 2.59 (home xG 1.51 vs away xG 1.08), which under a Poisson distribution yields roughly a 73% probability for Over 1.5 and about 48% for Over 2.5. Season-long metrics confirm an offensive mindset: Siarka averages 2.0 goals per game and has 77% of matches Over 1.5 and 62% Over 2.5; Czarni have 62% and 46% respectively, with BTTS at 62% for Siarka and 54% for Czarni. Siarka generates on average 12.8 shots and 6.4 shots on target per match, while Czarni have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 avg) versus Siarka’s 4 goals (0.8 avg), increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Considering the higher home xG, strong Over 1.5 metrics (77%/62%) and the visitors’ current scoring form, the strongest and most reliable data-driven signal is to play Over 1.5.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg performs better across key metrics: average points per season are 2.15 versus 1.08 for Czarni, and a win rate of 69% versus 31%. At Half-Time the home side scores on average 0.82 goals (19 goals in halves) compared to 0.22 for the visitors (9 goals) and led at the break in 27% of matches versus 11% for Czarni. Siarka also has higher xG (1.6 vs 1.17) and more shots on target (6.4 vs 3.57), indicating greater control and offensive quality before the break. In second halves the hosts average 2.36 points and win 73% of their second halves versus 1.44 points and 22% for the visitors, so they more often maintain or increase a lead. For these reasons the strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time lead at the break and home victory (1/1), while a draw at Half-Time followed by a Siarka turnaround to win (X/1) is the second most likely outcome.