Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Jarosław: match statistics

Jarosław are showing clearly better current form: they have collected 8 points in their last five matches, winning twice, while Siarka have managed just 1 point and lost 4 games. The visitors have scored 13 goals during this period, compared with 8 for the hosts, while Siarka have conceded as many as 13. However, the hosts create chances at home worth an average xG of 1.75, slightly higher than Jarosław’s average xG conceded away from home of 1.61, giving them a realistic chance of scoring. Siarka’s main issue is their finishing, as they failed to score on average in their only home match of the season despite registering 6 shots on target. Jarosław have also looked vulnerable defensively away from home, conceding an average of 3 goals, but their significantly stronger results trend and consistent goalscoring record point towards an away win.

The signal for goals from both sides is very strong: in the current season, both Siarka Tarnobrzeg and Jarosław have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, and neither team has kept a clean sheet. In their last five games, the hosts have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.6 conceded, while the visitors have scored 2.6 goals and conceded 2.0. Both defenses look vulnerable to errors, as confirmed by the average xG allowed to opponents: 1.74 by Siarka and 1.57 by Jarosław. Jarosław averages 12 shots and 4 shots on target per match, while Siarka also records 4 shots on target, giving both teams a realistic chance of scoring. Although the league-wide BTTS average is 60%, both teams have notably more goal-oriented profiles, making BTTS - Yes the more likely outcome.

Both teams have a very clear goals profile: in their matches so far, each has recorded over 1.5 total goals in 100% of games, and neither has kept a clean sheet even once. In their last five matches, Siarka averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.6 conceded, while Jarosław scored as many as 2.6 goals and conceded 2.0. The combined goals average from these runs stands at 4.2 and 4.6 respectively, clearly above the league average of 2.95. However, a more cautious projection of 3.50 goals takes into account the lower xG figures of 1.31 for Siarka and 1.28 for Jarosław over their last five appearances. Over 1.5 goals remains the strongest selection, as both teams’ weak defenses and consistent scoring significantly reduce the likelihood of a game with no more than one goal.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Jarosław victory, as Siarka were level after 45 minutes in 75% of their recent matches, compared with 40% for Jarosław. However, the hosts are in very poor late-match form: they have won none of their last five games, averaging just 0.25 goals scored after the break and conceding as many as 1.75. Jarosław have shown considerably greater strength after half-time, scoring an average of 2.0 goals in their last five outings while conceding 1.2, and winning the second half in 60% of those matches. The visitors also have the better record across their last five games, with a 40% win rate and an average of 1.6 points per match, while Siarka lost 80% of their games and averaged 0.2 points. Although the hosts more often start actively, Jarosław’s advantage after the break primarily points to the X/2 HT/FT outcome.