Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: match statistics

I forecast a home win. Sichuan Jiuniu create on average 14.7 shots and 4.5 shots on target per home match, translating to 2.0 goals and an average xG of 1.51, whereas Chongqing away register only 7.3 shots, 3.0 on target, 0.9 goals and xG 0.84. Defensively the visitors concede 1.2 goals on average away versus 1.5 conceded by the hosts at home; both teams share a similar clean sheet rate (30% each), but the hosts are less likely to finish scoreless at home (fail to score in 10% of home matches vs 30% of the visitors’ away matches). In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 7 goals with a 1-1-3 record and averaged 0.8 points per game, while the visitors scored 5 goals with a 1-2-2 record and averaged 1.0 points per game. Considering the meaningful home advantage in chance creation (xG 1.51 vs 0.84), higher average goals at their stadium (2.0 vs 0.9) and better shot efficiency (approx. 14% vs approx. 12%), I favor a Sichuan victory.

League and seasonal statistics support BTTS: in the league BTTS occurs in 64% of matches, home teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 60% and away teams 50%. Home sides score on average 1.4 goals per season (xG 1.17), average 10.6 shots and 3.6 on target per game, while away teams have xG 0.84 and average 0.9 goals, indicating a home advantage in chance creation. The away defense looks vulnerable — xG against for away teams is 1.63, and in the last 5 matches away teams conceded on average 1.2 goals while home teams conceded 2.0 on average, which favors goal exchange. Although home teams have a seasonal clean sheet rate of 40% and away teams 30%, the last 5 games show BTTS for homes at 40% and for aways at 60%, so the cumulative signal (league 64% + seasonal and recent trends) leads me to pick 'BTTS - Yes' with a confidence of 68% versus 32% for 'No Goal'.

A model combining xG and goal averages estimates 1.40 goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 0.90 for Chongqing, totaling 2.30 goals. Sichuan averages 1.4 goals per match and generates 1.17 xG with 10.6 shots and 3.6 on target, while Chongqing records 0.9 goals and 0.84 xG with 7.3 shots, indicating a clear attacking advantage for the hosts. Seasonal indicators show the hosts had 70% of matches over 1.5 goals, the visitors 50%, and in the last 5 fixtures Sichuan registered 60% of matches over 2.5, which increases the likelihood of at least two goals in the game. The Poisson distribution forecast gives roughly 67% for over 1.5, ~40% for Over 2.5 and ~20% for Over 3.5, which aligns with seasonal 30–40% for Over 2.5 and 20–30% for Over 3.5. Based on this, I recommend backing Over 1.5 (line 1.5 – Over) as the strongest signal, since the 67% probability together with the club’s 70% over1.5 rate offers the best risk-to-reward balance.

I project a Half-Time draw and a Home win at Full-Time (X/1) as the most likely scenario. A Half-Time draw is supported by HT statistics: the home team were level at the break in 60% of matches and the away team in 40%, while the home side led at the break in only 10% of games. The home team are also stronger in second halves — season average goals for the home team are 1.4 versus 0.9 for the visitors, and in the second half the home side score on average 1.1 goals vs 0.4 for the away team. Additionally, the home team have higher xG (1.17 vs 0.84) and have scored 5 goals in the 46–60 minute window compared to 1 for the visitors, while the away team concede an average of 1.63 xG against them, which increases the likelihood of conceding after the break. Consequently I assign X/1 the highest weight at 30%, X/X 15%, and smaller shares to the remaining variants.