Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye: match statistics

Sichuan Jiuniu have the home advantage: they win 46% of their home matches and score an average of 1.77 goals, while Henan Jianye win 31% of their away games and score 1.31 goals in them. The hosts also create better chances — their home xG is 1.46 compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.24 — while Henan concede an average of 1.69 goals away from home, against 1.31 goals conceded by Sichuan at home. Recent form does not give the hosts a clear edge, however: they have scored 4 goals and won once in their last five matches, whereas the visitors have scored 7 goals but have not won during that period. Henan’s four draws in their last five games increase the likelihood of the points being shared, but Sichuan’s stronger home record supports backing the hosts.

BTTS - Yes landed in 77% of Henan's matches and 46% of Sichuan's, but those rates rose to 80% and 60%, respectively, across the teams' last 5 games. The hosts have a good chance of scoring, with an average xG of 1.65, while Henan concede an average of 1.69 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in just 8% of games. The visitors score an average of 1.31 goals, while Sichuan conceded an average of 1.6 goals in their last 5 matches. The risk with this pick is that Sichuan failed to score in 38% of their matches and averaged only 0.8 goals across their last 5. However, Henan's poor defense makes goals from both sides the more likely scenario.

The strongest argument for Under 3.5 goals is that this outcome has occurred in 85% of matches for each team. Sichuan average 1.23 goals per match, while Henan average 1.31, so both teams would need to improve their finishing significantly to push the total beyond this line. However, the hosts could exploit the visitors’ defense, which concedes an average of 1.69 goals and allows opponents chances worth 1.57 xG. Sichuan, in turn, concede an average of 1.00 goal, limiting Henan’s scoring potential. The projected total of 2.67 goals points to a realistic chance of two or three goals, but the teams’ statistics give Under 3.5 a clearer edge than a bet around the 2.5-goal line.

A half-time draw is likely, as both teams went into the break level in 3 of their last 5 matches, and this has occurred in 38% of each team’s games over the season. However, Sichuan Jiuniu may make a slow start: the hosts have not led at the break in any of their last 5 matches, while Henan Jianye were ahead at half-time in 2 of 5. The case for the result tilting in the hosts’ favor later is supported by their higher average xG, 1.65 compared with the visitors’ 1.24, and 4.77 shots on target per match against 3.54. Henan concede an average of 1.38 goals after the break, rising to 1.8 across their last 5 matches, which increases the hosts’ chances of scoring the winner in the second half. Therefore, a half-time draw followed by a Sichuan Jiuniu win is the strongest single HT/FT scenario, although the visitors’ stronger first halves leave considerable uncertainty.