Sidama Bunna vs Adama Kenema: match statistics

Sidama Bunna, as league leaders, have strong home advantages: 50% home wins, 69% clean sheets and only 0.44 goals conceded per match on average, with xG for 1.24 and xG against 1.00. Adama Kenema sit 16th and win only 25% of away fixtures, scoring 0.94 and conceding 1.06 on average; their average shots (5.86) and shots on target (2.21) are lower than Sidama’s (7.69 and 3.06). In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored only 3 goals and average 0.8 points per game, while the visitors scored 6 goals and average 1.2 points per game, indicating better short-term attacking form for Adama. Shot conversion favors the visitors (17% vs 14%), but Sidama’s defensive edge, higher clean sheet rate and lower xG against (1.00 vs 1.17) argue for a home win, although Adama’s high share of away draws (44%) increases the probability of a points split.

Sidama Bunna has a seasonal BTTS rate of only 29% and 0% BTTS in the last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded in those five games; additionally Sidama has kept a clean sheet in 53% of matches and failed to score in 47% of seasonal fixtures. Adama Kenema shows a higher seasonal BTTS of 56% and 40% in the last 5 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored across their last five, but as an away team they concede 1.06 goals seasonally while averaging 0.94 scored. xG comparison indicates a balanced goal threat (Sidama attack xG 1.19 vs xG against Adama 1.17), and shot stats give Sidama a slight offensive edge (avg 7.29 shots and 3.0 on target vs Adama 5.86 and 2.21). The league is low-scoring (avg 1.79 goals per match) and records a high clean sheet rate of 80%, which further favors matches where one team fails to score. Overall the stronger and more consistent signal comes from Sidama (53% clean sheets and 0% BTTS in the last 5), so I forecast a higher probability of a Both Teams To Score - No outcome: BTTS 'no' 66% vs 'yes' 34%.

Expected goals based on xG are approximately 1.18 for Sidama Bunna and 1.09 for Adama Kenema (total 2.27), which sits below the 2.5 threshold and suggests moderate chances of three or more goals. Historically Over 2.5 occurred in only 29% of Sidama’s matches and 31% of Adama’s matches (avg ~30%), meaning 70% of matches finished Under 2.5 — this is the strongest signal in the data. Both teams score little: Sidama 0.88 goals/match and Adama 0.94 goals/match (combined 1.82), and shots and shots on target are 7.29/3.0 for the home side and 5.86/2.21 for the visitors, which limits realistic conversion of xG into goals. Additionally Sidama keeps a clean sheet in 53% of games, and the league has a low goals-per-game average of 1.79, further favoring Under; the only factor increasing risk is a high percentage of Both Teams to Score at Adama (56%). Therefore I recommend the Under side on the 2.5 line (estimate Under 2.5 ≈70%), while noting that Over 1.5 is nearly balanced (~49% Over) and Over 3.5 has low probability (~22% Over).

The strongest signal is a draw at halftime: hosts were level at the break in 47% of matches, visitors in 75%, and in the last five games of both teams a halftime draw occurred in 60% of cases. Both teams score little — Sidama averages 0.88 goals per game, Adama 0.94, with xG of 1.19 versus 1.04 respectively, indicating a limited number of clear chances and low finishing. Additionally, the league features a high share of clean sheets (80%), and hosts have 71% clean sheets at the break, which favors low scores and draws after 90 minutes. Sidama, however, has a slight edge in the second half (average second-half goals 1.06 vs 1.00 for Adama and 6 Sidama goals in minutes 76–90 versus 2 for the visitors), so the Half-Time/Full-Time draw/draw (X/X) scenario appears most reliable. I allocated probabilities to reflect the frequency of draws and leads: X/X 34%, then X/1 16% and X/2 11%, with the remainder aligned with historical 24% halftime leads for hosts and 13% halftime leads for visitors.