Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905: match statistics

Sigma Olomouc has a clear defensive edge at home: they concede an average of 0.73 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 60% of matches, while Bohemians 1905 concede an average of 1.27 goals away and have only 27% clean sheets. In attack the hosts score 1.13 goals per game with xG 1.55 and 4.2 shots on target, whereas the visitors have 0.93 goals per game with xG 1.46 and 3.8 shots on target, and 40% of their away matches end goalless for them. Sigma also register higher possession (53% vs 43%), a superior shot conversion rate (9% vs 8%) and win 53% of home matches with only 20% defeats, while Bohemians win 33% of away games and lose 47% of them. At the same time Bohemians are in better recent form over the last 5 matches (3 wins, 1.8 pts per game) than Sigma (2 wins, 1.2 pts), but their weaker away defense limits their chances. Taking this into account, I tip a home win and assess probabilities as: home 60%, draw 25%, away 15%.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 38% for Sigma and 40% for Bohemians (average 39%), so the historical base is low. However, in the last 5 matches Sigma recorded BTTS 5/5 (100%), scoring on average 1.8 and conceding 2.0, while Bohemians in their last 5 averaged 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded (BTTS 40%). Last-5 xG paints a similar picture: Sigma has xG 1.67 with xG against 1.64, Bohemians have xG 1.52 with xG against 1.36, translating to roughly 1.65 and 1.44 expected goals for both sides and indicating potential for goals at both ends. Additionally, both teams create about 12 shots per match (12.25 vs 12.07) with 4.06 and 3.8 shots on target, while clean sheets are only 31% vs 27% (well below the league 57%), which increases the likelihood of conceded goals. Considering Sigma’s 100% BTTS in the last 5, their higher xG and number of shots on target, I assign 70% to BTTS - Yes and 30% to No Goal.

Based on xG: Sigma has xG_for 1.51, Bohemians 1.46, while the opponents’ defenses concede xG 1.58 (Bohemians) and 1.40 (Sigma); the averages (1.51+1.58)/2 = 1.55 for the home side and (1.46+1.40)/2 = 1.43 for the away side yield a combined expected total of approximately 2.98 expected goals. A Poisson model with an expected total of 2.98 translates to estimated probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈80%, Over 2.5 ≈57% and Over 3.5 ≈35%. Season data confirm the tendency for goals at the 1.5 level: Sigma have 56% of matches over 1.5, Bohemians 73%; however season-long Over 2.5 rates are lower (38% and 40%), which limits the case for higher lines. In the short term Sigma are even more attacking — in the last 5 matches they averaged 1.8 goals and had 100% of matches over 2.5, while Bohemians averaged 1.4 goals in their last 5; this increases the chance of more than 2.5 goals in this fixture. As a result the strongest, most predictable market is Over 1.5 (recommendation), although Over 2.5 has a moderate edge and can be considered as an alternative.

Half-Time statistics indicate a draw: Sigma were level at the break in 56% of home matches, while Bohemians led at the break in 33% of away games and average 0.53 goals at half-time versus the hosts' 0.25, suggesting an even but low-scoring first period. In Sigma’s last 5 home fixtures there was a 100% rate of matches with at least one goal by half-time and an average of 1.0 half-time goals; however, Bohemians show stronger form late in the season — 60% wins in their last 5 matches versus the hosts’ 40%. In second halves the visitors perform better: in their last 5 matches Bohemians earned an average of 1.4 points after the break, while Sigma managed only 0.8, supporting a potential turnaround or decisive advantage for the visitors after half-time. xG is similar (1.51 for Sigma vs 1.46 for Bohemians), but the visitors have a slightly higher seasonal win rate (40% vs 38%) and an average of 1.2 away points versus the hosts’ 1.13, therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a visitors’ win at full-time (X/2).