Silkeborg vs Fredericia: match statistics

I predict a home win (1), as Silkeborg generates significantly more chances at home: on average 12.92 shots and 4.77 on target per match versus Fredericia’s 10.15 shots and 3.54 on target away, and the home side’s average xG is 1.50 compared to 1.21 for the visitors. Defensively the home advantage is also evident — Fredericia concedes 2.23 goals on average away with an average xG against of 2.45, while Silkeborg concede 1.54 goals at home with xG against of 1.65. However Silkeborg have an efficiency problem: at home they fail to score in 54% of matches and their shot conversion rate is only 8%, whereas Fredericia convert 16% of attempts and average 1.62 goals away, which keeps the visitors in contention. In the short term both teams show similar form — 1.4 points per game over the last 5 matches, in which Silkeborg scored 8 goals and Fredericia 6, but Silkeborg have conceded 11 goals in that period versus 8 for their opponents. Considering the possession advantage (52% vs 39%), higher average xG for the home team and Fredericia’s markedly weaker away defense, I expect a narrow Silkeborg victory, with a risk of goals from both sides.

Both teams give a clear BTTS signal: seasonal rates are 54% for Silkeborg and 69% for Fredericia, with a league average of 60%. Defensively both sides are vulnerable — Silkeborg concedes 2.08 goals per game (xG against 1.94), Fredericia 2.23 (xG against 2.45), and clean sheet percentage is only 8% for both teams, reducing the likelihood of a No Goal outcome. Offensively Silkeborg produces 1.4 xG and averages 4.15 shots on target, Fredericia has 1.21 xG and 3.54 shots on target; additionally Fredericia’s conversion rate is higher at 16% versus Silkeborg’s 8%, so both teams have realistic chances to score. In the last 5 matches both teams registered 60% BTTS, with average goals scored 1.6 (Silkeborg) and 1.2 (Fredericia) and average goals conceded 2.2 and 1.6; therefore I forecast BTTS - Yes, estimating probability at 75% (yes) vs 25% (no).

Both teams had 92% of their matches this season with more than 1.5 goals, which is a very strong signal for Over 1.5 — therefore I assign this option a 94% probability. In the last 5 matches Silkeborg generated xG of 1.60 on average, and Fredericia 1.56, which translates to expected goals of 1.60 for the home side and 1.50 for the visitors (total 3.10) and aligns with the league average of 3.08. The 2.5 line is also favored: season shares of matches over 2.5 are 62% for Silkeborg and 85% for Fredericia (last 5 matches ~80%), hence I rate Over 2.5 at about 78%. The 3.5 line is closer to even (seasonal 38%/54%), so I accept Over 3.5 46% vs Under 3.5 54% as a less certain pick. Additionally, both teams concede a lot of goals (averaging 2.08 and 2.23 per match) and record on average 12.15 and 10.15 shots with conversion rates of 8% vs 16%, which increases the likelihood of goals and reinforces the Over 1.5 recommendation.

The most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time with Fredericia winning Full-Time (X/2). Silkeborg have drawn at the break in 46% of home matches and led at the break in only 15%, whereas Fredericia led at Half-Time in 31% of their games and average 0.92 goals by the break versus Silkeborg’s 0.46. Over 90 minutes Fredericia average 1.62 goals compared to Silkeborg’s 1.00; although Silkeborg generate more xG (1.40 vs 1.21), the visitors convert chances more efficiently (16% conversion rate vs 8% for the home side). Additionally, the second half tends to favor scoring (the percentage of matches with a goal after the break is 85% for the home team and 92% for the away side), and Silkeborg were trailing at Half-Time in 60% of their last five games, which increases the likelihood of a Fredericia turnaround after the break.