Simba vs Pamba Jiji: match statistics

Simba is the clear favorite: at home they have won 75% of matches and are on a 5-match winning streak in which they scored 11 goals (2.2 per game) and conceded only 1. The hosts average 11.36 shots and 4.55 on target per game, have a 18% conversion rate and a home xG of 1.7, while conceding only 0.42 goals per game and keeping clean sheets in 75% of matches. Pamba Jiji win only 23% of away matches, score 0.69 goals per game on the road, fail to score in 54% of away fixtures and in their last 5 games have scored 4 and conceded 8, averaging 0.8 points per game. The gap in chance quality and efficiency (Simba 18% conversion vs Pamba 8%, and 11.36 vs 7.9 shots) combined with the visitors’ weaker defense (1.23 away goals conceded vs 0.42 for the hosts) favors a Simba win.

I back No BTTS, because Simba averages 1.33 goals scored and only 0.92 conceded per match, while Pamba has 0.69 scored and 1.23 conceded, giving the hosts the edge both offensively and defensively. In the last 5 matches Simba averaged 2.2 goals scored and 0.2 conceded (11-1 overall), while Pamba has 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded (4-8), so form favors a clean sheet for Simba. xG figures are similar (xG 1.34 vs 1.33), but Simba’s shot conversion is 19% versus Pamba’s 8%, meaning Simba is more efficient at turning chances into goals. Additionally, Simba’s season clean sheet rate is 50% versus Pamba’s 31%, and in the league 79% of matches end with a clean sheet for one side, so a No BTTS scenario is more likely.

Based on xG and opponents' defensive xG I estimated expected goals of 1.35 for Simba and 1.31 for Pamba Jiji, totaling around 2.66 goals. Applying a Poisson model with λ=2.66 yields probabilities of approximately 74% for Over 1.5, ~50% for Over 2.5 and ~27% for Over 3.5. Additionally, Simba is in excellent form — in the last 5 matches they scored 11 goals (2.2 per game) and conceded 1 (0.2 per game); seasonally they score 1.33 goals and have 50% clean sheets, while Pamba Jiji in the last 5 matches scored 4 goals (0.8) and conceded 8 (1.6) and seasonally score only 0.69 goals. The efficiency gap is clear: Simba’s conversion rate is 19% versus Pamba’s 8%, and historical percentages of matches over 1.5 are 67% for Simba and 62% for Pamba, which combined with the estimated 2.66 goals favors Over 1.5 as the strongest play signal.

Simba is a clear favorite based on form and statistics: in the last 5 matches they have won 5 of 5 (100%), while Pamba has won only 1 of 5 (20%). In first halves over the last 5 fixtures Simba led in 3 of 5 (60%) and averaged 1.2 goals at the break with 0.2 conceded, whereas Pamba scored 0.0 first-half goals on average and conceded 1.2. After the break Simba remains more dangerous — they average 0.9 second-half goals on the season and collected an average of 2.6 points in second halves in the last 5 matches, while Pamba has only 0.17 second-half goals seasonally and 1.0 point in second halves in the last 5. Additionally, the home side’s finishing is higher (conversion rate 19% versus Pamba’s 8%) and average goals per match are 1.33 versus 0.69, which increases the likelihood that a lead at the break will be maintained; therefore I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (34%), with X/1 (27%) as the second most likely outcome.