Simba vs Singida Black Stars: match statistics

Simba shows very strong home metrics: 77% home win rate, averaging 2.08 goals scored and only 0.46 conceded per match, with average xG 1.71 and xG against 0.78. Singida win just 29% of away matches, score 1.00 goal and concede 1.29 per game on average, and have a 41% rate of matches without scoring away. In the last 5 matches Singida scored 14 goals (2.8 per game) and won 4 times, while Simba have 5 wins in their last 5 (9 goals and only 2 conceded), indicating greater stability from the home side. The difference in chance creation is significant: Simba average 11.17 shots with 4.67 on target and 59% possession, versus 7 shots with 2.67 on target and 49% possession for Singida, translating into higher xG for the hosts (1.71 vs 1.19). Considering Simba’s 69% home clean sheet rate, superior defense (0.46 vs 1.29 conceded) and advantages in key metrics, I assess the probability of a home win at 70%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 12%.

The forecast leans toward BTTS – No, because Simba keeps a clean sheet in 56% of matches while Singida fail to score in 41% of their games. Simba average 1.75 goals at home with xG 1.71, conceding only 0.75 goals per match (xG against 1.14); in the last 5 matches Simba have conceded a total of 2 goals (0.4 per match). Singida have a season scoring average of 1.0 and average 2.67 shots on target versus Simba’s 5.25, although in the short term they have scored 14 goals in 5 matches (2.8 average). Season BTTS rates are 31% for Simba and 53% for Singida, against a league level of 35%, which together suggests Simba is more likely to keep a clean sheet than both teams to score. Based on this I assess the probability of BTTS 'Yes' at around 30% and 'No' at around 70%.

The xG-based model gives 1.53 expected goals for Simba and 1.17 for Singida, totaling 2.70, which indicates a tendency toward at least 2 goals in the match. Simba scores 1.75 and concedes 0.75 at home with 11.5 shots and 5.25 shots on target, while Singida away records 1.00 goals scored and concedes 1.29 with 7.0 shots and 2.67 on target — the home side’s creative advantage favors goals. In the last 5 matches Simba scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) and Singida 14 (2.8 per game), and recent xG are 1.87 for Simba and 1.50 for Singida, which elevates the probability of over 2 goals. Seasonal percentages show over 1.5 goals in 56% of Simba’s matches and 82% of Singida’s, while over 2.5 sits seasonally at 50% for Simba and 35% for Singida (although in the last 5 it was 60% and 100%). Therefore I recommend an over 1.5 bet as the strongest signal (line 1.5), rate over 2.5 as moderately likely, and over 3.5 as unlikely.

Simba led at the break in 45% of home matches and averages 1.00 goals in the first half while conceding only 0.36, giving the hosts a clear advantage in the opening phase. Over the full 90 minutes Simba wins at home in 75% of cases, scoring 1.75 goals per season compared to Singida’s 1.00; additionally Simba’s xG is 1.71 versus the visitors’ 1.19, and shots on target are 5.25 versus 2.67, which confirms the hosts’ dominance. Simba keep a clean sheet at half-time in 73% of home games, while Singida led at the break in only 33% of their matches and average 0.58 first-half goals, so the scenario of Simba leading after 45 minutes is statistically justified. Although Singida’s last 5 matches show a form of 'lwwww' and they averaged 1.6 first-half goals in those games, the advantage in xG, shots on target and the 75% home win rate make the strongest signal HT/FT 1/1; therefore the recommended pick is 1/1.