Singida Black Stars vs Pamba Jiji: match statistics

Singida Black Stars have a clear advantage in chance creation at home: on average 10.83 shots per game, including 3.83 on target, and xG 1.61, versus 7.0 shots, 3.14 on target and xG 1.16 for Pamba Jiji away. Defensively the hosts also look better — they concede 0.9 goals per home game and keep 60% clean sheets, while Pamba concedes 1.1 goals on the road and records clean sheets in only 30% of matches. In the last 5 matches Singida scored 4 goals and have a 1-1-3 record (0.8 pts/game), whereas Pamba scored 3 goals with a 1-2-2 record (1.0 pts/game), which limits confidence in a dominant home performance. It is also noteworthy that the hosts fail to score in 20% of home games and the visitors fail to score in 60% of away games, so a low-total outcome favors Singida. Considering superior xG (1.61 vs 1.16), higher shot volume (10.83 vs 7.0) and defensive solidity at home, I tip the hosts to win.

Singida scores on average 1.4 goals per match and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of games, while Pamba averages only 0.7 goals and records clean sheets in 30% of appearances. Seasonal BTTS rate is 40% for Singida and 30% for Pamba, with the league-wide BTTS at 33%, indicating matches in this league less frequently end Goal/Goal. Home xG for the season is 1.35 versus 1.16 for the visitors, and in the last 5 matches Pamba has xG_for 1.66 and concedes on average 1.2 goals — meaning the away side creates chances but their seasonal shot conversion is only 8%, so few chances are turned into goals. Considering Singida’s high clean sheet percentage (50%), Pamba’s low goals-per-game (0.7) and the league BTTS of 33%, I project the No Goal scenario as stronger, rated at 65% versus 35% for BTTS - Yes.

I forecast approximately 1.38 goals for Singida Black Stars and 1.12 for Pamba Jiji, totaling 2.50 goals. The basis is home xG 1.35 vs away xG 1.16 and xG against 1.21 (against Pamba) and 1.30 (against Singida); after adjusting for seasonal average goals (1.4 vs 0.7) and conversion rates (20% vs 8%) I obtained 1.38/1.12. A Poisson model with total λ=2.50 yields over 1.5 ≈71%, over 2.5 ≈46% and over 3.5 ≈24% (respectively under 29%, 54%, 76%). Despite the high probability for Over 1.5 (71%), I pick Under 3.5 as the best line because historical Over 3.5 is only 10% for Singida and 0% for Pamba, and Under 3.5 is the strongest signal (≈76%).

The probability of a draw at half-time is high: Singida were level at the break in 63% of matches and Pamba in 56%, giving roughly a 60% probability of a HT draw. In the second half the home side hold a clear advantage — Singida average 1.25 goals after the interval and have scored 3 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 0 for Pamba in that period, with shot conversion rates of 20% for the hosts and 8% for the visitors. Seasonal figures confirm Singida’s superiority: goals per game 1.4 vs 0.7 for Pamba, xG 1.35 vs 1.16 and the hosts win 50% of home matches compared to 20% away wins for the visitors. Taking into account a 60% chance of a HT draw and the hosts’ stronger second half, the most likely scenario is a half-time draw followed by a Singida victory (X/1). I therefore assign X/1 the highest probability at 34%, with lower probabilities for X/X (21%) and 1/1 (19%), while comebacks by the visitors are assessed at about 16% in total.