Sion vs Thun: match statistics

Sion is clearly in better form — in the last five matches they have 4 wins and 1 draw, scored 13 goals (2.6 per match) and conceded only 1 (0.2 per match), averaging 2.6 points per game. Thun, despite being the season leader (24 wins and 76 goals), arrives in poorer form: in the last 5 fixtures only 1 win, 4 losses, 5 goals scored and 8 conceded and 0.6 points per match. Sion’s home metrics indicate a solid defense — at home they concede 0.71 goals per match on average and keep a clean sheet in 47% of games; their home attacking xG is 1.64 versus opponents’ xG 1.48, while Thun away posts an attacking xG of 1.82 and opponents’ xG 1.52 with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.18 conceded on the road. Over the season Thun generates more quality chances (16.59 shots and 5.29 on target away, 12% conversion versus Sion’s 14.65 shots, 5.18 on target and 10%), but the current trend (Sion 2.6 pts vs Thun 0.6 pts in the last 5) and the hosts’ superior defense point toward a Sion win.

Both teams have very high season BTTS rates: Sion 72% and Thun 71%, versus a league average of 66%, which strongly suggests both sides regularly trade goals. Sion scores 2.33 goals per game on average, Thun 2.00, with average goals conceded of 1.17 and 1.18; xG is 1.97 for Sion and 1.82 for Thun, so both teams generate over 1.8 xG and have the capacity to both score and concede. Additionally, 72% of Sion’s matches and 82% of Thun’s matches finish over 2.5 goals, and the combination of over 2.5 goals with BTTS occurs in 67% and 71% of their games respectively, further increasing the likelihood of Goal/Goal. There is a limiting factor: in the last 5 matches Sion has only 20% BTTS and concedes 0.2 goals on average, while Thun in their last 5 has 60% BTTS and concedes 1.6, indicating that in the short term Sion can shut down opponents. Despite Sion’s short-term form, the season-long metrics (72%/71% BTTS, average goals 2.33 and 2.00 and high percentages of matches over 2.5 goals) favor the BTTS - Yes scenario, therefore I assess the probability of both teams scoring at about 80%.

The fixture projects as offensive: Sion averages 2.33 goals in home matches, Thun 2.00 away, and xG is 1.97 for Sion and 1.82 for Thun; accounting for xG against (Thun concedes 1.52, Sion concedes 1.66) yields an expected ~1.75 goals for Sion and ~1.74 for Thun (total 3.49). Both teams have a high share of matches over 2.5 goals: season-wide Sion 72% and Thun 82%, versus the league average 67%, which strongly supports Over 2.5 (I estimate 80%). Over 1.5 is virtually certain: season Over 1.5 is 83% and 82%, and the expected 3.49 goals well exceeds that threshold (hence 92% on Over 1.5). The 3.5 line is balanced — Sion has 50% of matches over 3.5, Thun 35%, and the expected 3.49 is close to the 3.5 mark, so I give Over 3.5 only 48% vs Under 52%. Additionally, shots on target 6.39 vs 5.29 and a high BTTS rate ~72% reinforce the recommendation of Over 2.5 as the best option.

Sion led at the break in 50% of their matches (9 times) and in the last 5 games they were leading at the break in 60% of cases, so I expect the hosts to be at least leading after 45 minutes. Sion’s form is clearly superior: 80% wins in the last 5 matches (4 of 5) and an average of 2.6 points per game over that period versus Thun, who have 20% wins and 0.6 points. In attack Sion generates an xG of 1.97 versus Thun’s 1.82, averages 6.39 shots on target compared to 5.29, and in the second half over the last 5 matches scores an average of 1.8 goals versus Thun’s 0.4; additionally Sion have scored 10 goals in minutes 46–60 and concede almost nothing in that phase (1 conceded). On this basis the strongest scenario is 1/1 (Sion leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time), which is why this variant received the highest probability in the forecast.