Slaven Koprivnica vs HNK Vukovar 1991: match statistics

Slaven Koprivnica are the favorites — they sit 6th and win 47% of home matches; at home they have a goal difference of +3, score 1.47 goals on average with xG 1.67 and register 14.47 shots (4.53 on target). HNK Vukovar 1991 are 10th, have won only 7% of away fixtures, score 0.67 goals on average with xG 1.15 and register 8.87 shots (2.53 on target), indicating low-quality chance creation. Defensively the hosts hold the edge: Slaven concedes 1.27 goals at home, while Vukovar concedes 2.07 on the road; in the last 5 matches the hosts have conceded 6 goals and the visitors 14. In recent form the hosts average 1.4 points per game versus the visitors’ 0.8, and additionally Vukovar fail to score in 40% of away games while Slaven keep clean sheets in 27% of home matches. Considering the superiority in shot volume, higher xG (1.67 vs 1.15), better shooting efficiency (10% vs 8%) and lower average goals conceded, I predict a home win.

Both teams show high BTTS rates: Slaven 69% and HNK Vukovar 60%, versus a league average of 55%, which already favors the "both to score" scenario. In the last 5 matches Slaven had BTTS in 60% of games and Vukovar in 80%; in those five Vukovar conceded on average 2.8 goals and scored 1.0, increasing the likelihood of an exchange of goals. Seasonally Slaven scores 1.31 and concedes 1.81, Vukovar scores 0.67 and concedes 2.07; their xG are 1.48 (Slaven) and 1.15 (Vukovar), with xG against 1.8 and 1.99, and Slaven registers more on-target shots (4.06 vs 2.53) and higher conversion rate (12% vs 8%). Clean sheets are rare: Slaven has 13% of matches without conceding, Vukovar only 7%, so the probability of a match with one team kept out is low. On this basis I recommend BTTS = Yes with a 75% rating versus 25% for No.

Average xG shows 1.48 for Slaven and 1.15 for Vukovar, while average xG against is 1.99 (Vukovar) and 1.80 (Slaven), yielding expected goals of approximately 1.74 for the home side and 1.48 for the visitors (total 3.22). Seasonally Slaven matches have exceeded 1.5 goals in 81% of cases and Vukovar in 87% — considering also 100% of Slaven home matches with over 0.5 goals and 93% for away matches, I assign a very high probability to Over 1.5 (92%). For the 2.5 line Slaven has 56% Over 2.5 seasonally and Vukovar 60%, but in the last 5 matches both teams recorded Over 2.5 in 80% of cases, and Vukovar conceded 14 goals in 5 matches (2.8 per game), hence I assess Over 2.5 at 74%. Over 3.5 is less certain: Slaven 44% seasonally and Vukovar 27% give an average around 35%, therefore I attribute a 38% chance to Over 3.5; additionally Slaven averages 4.06 shots on target with a 12% conversion versus 2.53 and 8% for the visitors, which creates a real risk of multiple goals. Both teams record BTTS: 69% for Slaven and 60% for Vukovar, which further supports the signal for Over 1.5 and Over 2.5, therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest and most reliable signal.

Seasonally, hosts have led at the break in 6% of matches, been level at half-time in 50%, and trailed in 44%; in the last 5 matches the home side were level at half-time in 100% of cases, strongly indicating a half-time draw. At half-time the home team averages 0.38 goals and the visitors 0.27, so the expected first half will be low-scoring. After the break the hosts score an average of 0.94 goals and collect 1.44 points in second halves, while the visitors record 0.4 goals and 0.67 points after the interval — indicating a clear home advantage in the second half. The home side also have a higher xG of 1.48 versus the visitors’ 1.15 and more shots on target (4.06 vs 2.53), and seasonal wins for the hosts stand at 25% versus 7% for the away team, which increases the likelihood that they will score the match-winning goal after the break. Therefore the most probable scenario is a half-time draw and a home victory after 90 minutes (X/1).