Slaven Koprivnica vs Rijeka: match statistics

Slaven Koprivnica has a clear home advantage: they win 54% of home matches, score on average 1.54 goals at their stadium and have an average xG of 1.67, while Rijeka away averages 1.00 goal and xG 1.51. In the last 5 matches Slaven scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) and averages 1.6 points per game, whereas Rijeka has only 3 goals (0.6 per match) and 0.8 points per game. The hosts register on average 4.69 shots on target and 14.31 attempts with a conversion rate of 11%, while the visitors have 3.15 on target and 13.15 shots with an 8% conversion, which translates into better quality and efficiency of Slaven’s chances. Defensively Slaven concedes 1.15 goals at home and keeps 31% clean sheets, while Rijeka concedes 1.38 goals away and has only 15% clean sheets and 38% of matches without scoring. Considering higher xG, more shots on target and significantly better last-5 numbers (9:3 in goals), I predict a home win.

xG analysis indicates both teams have realistic scoring chances: Slaven at home has xG 1.86 vs Rijeka’s average xG against 1.49 (1.86 vs 1.49), and Rijeka has xG 1.51 vs xG against Slaven 1.19 (1.51 vs 1.19), yielding projected expected goals of approximately 1.68 for Slaven and 1.35 for Rijeka. Seasonal goal averages show Slaven scores 1.71 at home and Rijeka scores 1.00 away, while in the last 5 matches Slaven averaged 1.8 goals and Rijeka only 0.6, which lowers Rijeka’s short-term chances. The league generally favors BTTS (league BTTS 56%), and seasonal BTTS rates are 43% for Slaven and 54% for Rijeka, so some league-level signals support a both-teams-to-score outcome. Additionally, Slaven records 4.57 shots on target and an 11% conversion rate, while Rijeka has 3.15 shots on target and an 8% conversion, indicating both sides create chances; therefore, despite Rijeka’s weaker recent scoring form (0.6 goals in the last 5), I favor the “BTTS - Yes” scenario.

Average xG gives 1.68 xG for Slaven Koprivnica (1.86 xG in Slaven’s attack vs 1.49 xG in Rijeka’s defense) and 1.35 xG for Rijeka (1.51 xG in Rijeka’s attack vs 1.19 xG in Slaven’s defense), totaling 3.03 expected goals. In the last 5 matches Slaven scored 9 goals (1.8 avg) and Rijeka only 3 goals (0.6 avg), and the home side registers more shots on target per game (4.57 vs 3.15), which supports higher goal output. Season-wide, matches over 1.5 goals occurred in 79% of Slaven’s games and 62% of Rijeka’s, against a league average of 52%, so the 1.5 line is historically favorable. Based on total xG=3.03 the Poisson model gives ~81% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~58% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~36% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5); therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

Statistics clearly favor Slaven: the hosts score an average of 1.71 goals per match versus Rijeka’s 1.00, have a higher xG of 1.86 vs 1.51 and a lower average of turnovers (losses) 0.93 vs 1.38, giving them a clear advantage. At half-time Slaven led in 6 matches (43%) compared to only 4 leads for Rijeka (31%), and the average goals by half-time is 0.79 for the hosts versus 0.54 for the visitors, so a Slaven lead at the break is the most likely outcome. The hosts average 4.57 shots on target versus Rijeka’s 3.15 and have a better conversion rate 11% vs 8%, which increases the chance of maintaining or extending the lead after the break. Over the full match Slaven wins 50% of games while Rijeka only 23%, therefore the 1/1 scenario (leading at half-time and winning full-time) is the strongest signal. Additionally Slaven keep a clean sheet at half-time in 64% of matches versus 46% for Rijeka, which further supports the maintenance of the hosts’ lead through full-time.