Slavia Sofia vs CSKA Sofia: match statistics

CSKA Sofia holds a slight edge based on the last five matches: the visitors scored 6 goals versus Slavia’s 5 and have a better goal difference from those games (-1 vs -2). League position also favors CSKA (10th vs Slavia 12th), and the points average over the last 5 matches is 1.4 for CSKA versus 1.2 for Slavia. Defensively the teams are level on numbers — each conceded 7 goals in their last five. CSKA recorded 2 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 (2-1-2) and has won the last 2 matches, while Slavia’s form across those five is 2-0-3. Given the higher points tempo and better recent goal return, I forecast an away win.

The strongest signal for BTTS - Yes is the high league-wide rate: in the First League BTTS occurs in 75% of matches, and the league average goals is 2.5 per game. In the last 5 matches Slavia averaged 1.0 goals scored and conceded 1.4, while CSKA scored 1.2 and also conceded 1.4; both teams have conceded 7 goals in five games, indicating open contests. xG shows greater threat from CSKA: xG for CSKA is 1.77 versus 1.4 for Slavia, and Slavia’s opponents generated xG 1.6 versus 1.16 against CSKA, which increases the likelihood that both sides will find the net. BTTS rates in the last 5 matches are 40% for Slavia and 60% for CSKA, so despite Slavia’s lower rate the dominant league signal (75%) and equal average concessions of 1.4 incline toward both teams scoring. I therefore assess a 72% probability for BTTS 'yes' and 28% for 'no', so I pick 'yes' as the best tip.

The last 5 matches show xG Slavia 1.40 and CSKA 1.77, with xG against them of 1.60 (Slavia) and 1.16 (CSKA). Averaging opponents' offense and defense yields an expected 1.28 goals for Slavia and 1.69 for CSKA, totalling 2.97 goals, which is above the league average of 2.50. In practice Slavia scored 5 goals in their last 5 matches (1.0 avg), CSKA 6 goals (1.2 avg), and both teams conceded 1.4 goals each, which supports a multi-goal scenario. A Poisson model with λ=2.97 gives ~80% probability for Over 1.5, ~57% for Over 2.5 and ~35% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5.

In the last 5 matches the home teams scored 6 goals by half-time (an average of 1.2 per match), while the away teams scored 5 goals by half-time (an average of 1.0), with home teams finding the net in the first half in 5 of 5 matches (100%) versus 3 of 5 (60%) for visitors. However, after the break the away teams score on average 0.6 goals per match compared to 0.4 for the hosts and have a better points return over the last 5 matches: 1.4 points for away teams versus 1.2 for home teams, as well as a lower loss rate (away 40% vs home 60%). Additionally, the league shows high goal activity (average goals per match 2.5) and 75% of fixtures see both teams scoring, which increases the likelihood of goals after half-time and of turnarounds. On this basis the strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time draw then away win (X/2) — therefore I assign this scenario a 20% probability; as alternatives I treat the home team holding the lead 1/1 (16%) and the away team holding the lead 2/2 (15%).