Smiltene vs Leevon / PPK: match statistics

Leevon/PPK demonstrates a clearly superior run — averaging 2.2 points per game over the last 5 matches with form 'dwwwd', versus 0.8 points and form 'ddddl' for Smiltene, and the visitors sit 4th compared to 10th in the table. The visitors' defense is decisive: Leevon/PPK concedes on average 0.5 goals away, while Smiltene concedes 3.0 goals at home. In terms of chance quality, home xG for the hosts is 1.77 versus 1.78 for the visitors, indicating a similar level of chance creation, but Smiltene relies on higher finishing efficiency (conversion 23% and an average of 7 shots on target), which can be unstable. The visitors also have greater possession (56% vs 47%) and 50% clean sheets away, allowing them to better control matches and limit opponents' chances. Considering the hosts' lack of home wins (0) and the visitors' perfect away win rate (100% in available data) combined with the defensive and points-per-game advantage, I predict a Leevon/PPK victory.

Data analysis indicates a clear lean toward BTTS - Yes: the league records 62% of matches with both teams scoring, and Smiltene has 80% BTTS in the last 5 matches with an average 1.8 goals scored and 2.6 conceded (9 scored, 13 conceded in the last 5). Leevon/PPK away this season average 2.0 goals scored with xG 1.78 and average 15 shots with 5 on target; the visitors have 60% BTTS in their last 5 matches and during that period score 1.6 and concede 0.8 goals (8 scored, 4 conceded). The hosts show low season-long xG values of 0.68 and only 3 shots per match on average, but the last 5 games show higher attacking xG of 2.08 and xG against 2.34, indicating more goal-scoring opportunities. Despite the hosts’ season BTTS rate of 0% and formally 100% clean sheets at home, the last 5 matches (80% BTTS, 1.8/2.6 goals) demonstrate Smiltene frequently concedes in practice. Considering the league BTTS level of 62% and recent signals of 80% and 60% BTTS for home and away sides, I assess BTTS probability at 75% (Yes) and 25% (No).

Based on home xG 0.68 and away xG 1.78, and xG against 1.27 (home) and 1.04 (away), I expect greater attacking activity from Leevon/PPK. The visitors average 15 shots and 5 on target per match versus 3 and 1 for the hosts, with a conversion rate of 13% versus 0%, translating to projected goals: 0.86 for Smiltene and 1.53 for Leevon/PPK (total 2.39). The total of 2.39 is clearly above the 1.5 threshold, so Over 1.5 is a strong and safe signal, while it is slightly below 2.5, making the 2.5 market balanced. Additionally, the league averages 3.62 goals per game, and 80% of the hosts’ last 5 matches were Over 2.5, which increases the probability of at least two goals despite the hosts’ contradictory seasonal indicators (100% clean sheets this season). For these reasons I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the best line; the expected 1.53 away goals and 0.86 home goals give a clear edge over the 1.5 threshold.

The data clearly show Leevon/PPK's superiority: the away team averages 2.0 goals per game versus the home side's 0.0, xG 1.78 versus 0.68, 15 shots versus 3 and 5 shots on target versus 1, giving them a large advantage in chance creation. A draw at Half-Time is very likely — seasonally the home team has had 100% of matches level at the break, and in the last 5 fixtures the away side were level at the break in 60% of cases, hence a high share of X at Half-Time. After the break the visitors statistically dominate: an average of 1.5 goals in the second half and 100% of Leevon/PPK’s matches featuring a goal after the break, combined with a conversion rate of 13% versus 0% for the home team, suggest the away side are most likely to decide the match. On this basis I select HT/FT X/2 as the strongest signal (I assign it 33%), followed by X/X 18% and 2/2 23%, while scenarios with the home side leading at Half-Time are rated very low (1–2%).